Fig. 8.

Comparison of curves for Basilicata region. Left: y–axis on normal scale, right: on logarithmic scale. Regression line shown for $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ with $95\%$ prediction band. Slope of regression with $95\%$ confidence interval: $a_{\mathrm{f}}=-0.079(-0.099,-0.059)$, this corresponds to a half-life (in days) of 8.786(7.037, 11.693). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{confirmed})\sim time$ is $a_{\mathrm{raw}}=-0.036(-0.054,-0.018)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 19.170(12.816, 38.025). The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{daily}\mathrm{tests})\sim time$ is 0.038(0.030, 0.028) corresponding to a doubling time (in days) of 18.446(24.860, 23.491). Ratio of slopes for $a_{\mathrm{f}}/a_{\mathrm{raw}}=2.182$, with corresponding half-lives’ ratio: 0.458. The slope of the regression $log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{confirmed})-log(\mathrm{cumulative}\mathrm{tested})\sim time$ is $-0.041(-0.043,-0.040)$ corresponding to a half-life (in days) of 16.866(16.265, 17.513)