Table 3.
Estimates of the number of deaths due to infectious intestinal disease in the UK per annum for selected pathogens
| Year(s): | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | ||||
| 2018 | 2018 | Average 2001–12 scaled up to 2018 by population | 2018 | |||||
| Pathogen |
Enhanced surveillance | Proportion deaths in outbreaks | Death certificate plus expert opinion | HES proportion of discharges due to death | ||||
| Central | 95% CrI | Central | 95% CrI | Central | 95% CrI | Central | 95% CrI | |
| Bacteria | ||||||||
| Campylobacter | -- | -- | 368 | (48 to 1372) | 15 | (12 to 20) | 45 | (24 to 84) |
| Clostridium perfringens | -- | -- | 30 | (2 to 190) | 0 | (0 to 1) | 129 | (23 to 2719) |
| Escherichia coli O157 | 2 | NA | 76 | (5 to 1217) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Listeria monocytogenes | 28 | NA | 32 | (17 to 52) | 22 | (19 to 27) | 21 | (8 to 30) |
| Salmonella | -- | -- | 160 | (30 to 840) | 24 | (22 to 27) | 37 | (8 to 176) |
| Shigella | -- | -- | 20 | (0 to 130) | 0 | (0 to 1) | 0 | (0 to 1) |
| Protozoa | ||||||||
| Cryptosporidium | -- | -- | 0 | (0 to 0) | 2 | (1 to 2) | 8 | (1 to 43) |
| Giardia | -- | -- | 0 | (0 to 0) | 0 | (0 to 2) | 0 | (0 to 3) |
| Viruses | ||||||||
| Adenovirus | -- | -- | 0 | (0 to 0) | -- | -- | 27 | (8 to 76) |
| Norovirus | -- | -- | 3613 | (1868 to 6293) | 35 | (23 to 47) | 453 | (252 to 771) |
| Rotavirus | -- | -- | 0 | (0 to 0) | 5 | (3 to 6) | 1 | (0 to 4) |
Where there is a 95% CrI of 0 to 0 in model 2, there were no deaths for that pathogen in the outbreak data.
CrI, credible interval; HES, hospital episode statistics.