Table 1.
Narratives of the scenarios modelled
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Business As Usual (BAU) | Rising global demand for vegetable oils drives oil palm plantation expansion in Indonesia, which consequently enhances increasing amounts of borrowed credits from overseas banks to finance CPO production. This process is financially beneficial for both banks and palm oil companies, yet it incurs biodiversity loss and global warming. The Government of Indonesia is more focused on creating jobs and reducing poverty through expanding the area of oil palm plantations. This situation is reinforced by weak environmental governance, as well as lack of funding allocated by international organizations for conservation |
| Reduce Biodiversity Loss (RBL) | Funding for conservation (mainly international) increases, thus benefiting biodiversity by enlarging the protected area network and restoring moderately degraded forests in Indonesia. Furthermore, biodiversity loss is halted by firms using credits, as well as public funding, to cover the additional costs of creating new plantations in degraded lands and to increase production efficiency in existing plantations |
| Reduce Carbon Emissions (RCE) | The government of Indonesia receives international funding to maximize above-ground biomass accumulation and reduce carbon emissions. Highly degraded forests are restored, due to their high potential to sequestrate carbon. The protected area network is enlarged, although investments are lower than in RBL since area protection benefits biodiversity conservation more. Carbon sequestration is also enhanced by firms using credits and public funding to create plantations in degraded lands (with low carbon stocks) and increasing productivity in existing cultivations |
| Sustainable Futures (SF) | Economically supported by international bodies and developed countries, the government’s goal is to enhance win–win contexts regarding climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Restoration of degraded land takes place in both highly and moderately degraded lands, which benefit biodiversity and carbon conservation. Furthermore, firms use credits and public funding to increase production efficiency in existing cultivations and create plantations in degraded lands |