Table 2.
Potential impact fraction of systolic blood pressure to stroke according to gender and age groups at different scenarios.a
| Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | Gender | Current (factual) prevalence (%) | Hazard ratio | Counterfactual prevalence (%) | PIF (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st feasible minimum risk (scenario1) | 2st feasible minimum risk (scenario2) | Theoretical minimum risk (scenario3) | 1st feasible minimum risk (scenario1) | 1st feasible minimum risk (scenario2) | Theoretical minimum risk (scenario3) | ||||
| <115 | Male | 27 (22, 32) | 1 (Reference) | 27 (22, 32) | 27 (22, 32) | 44 (38, 50) | 3.3 | 6.7 | 23.95 |
| 115–140 | 51 (45, 57) | 2.5 (2.3, 2.7) | 58 (53, 64) | 64 (58, 70) | 56 (50, 61) | ||||
| 140–160 | 19 (14, 23) | 6 (5.5, 6.5) | 13 (9, 17) | 8 (5, 11) | 0 | ||||
| More than160 | 3 (1, 5) | 8 (7, 9) | 1 (0.08, 3) | 0.06 (0, 1) | 0 | ||||
| Less than 115 | Female | 36 (30, 41) | 1 (Reference) | 36 (30, 41) | 36)30, 41) | 52 (46, 56) | 3.4 | 6.7 | 23.83 |
| 115–140 | 45 (40, 50) | 1.8 (1.6, 2) | 51 (45, 56) | 55 (50, 61) | 48 (42, 54) | ||||
| 140–160 | 16 (12, 20) | 4.5 (4, 5) | 11 (8, 15) | 7 (4, 10) | 0 | ||||
| >160 | 3 (1, 5) | 6 (5, 7) | 2 (0.03, 3) | 1 (0, 2) | 0 | ||||
| <115 | Below 60 years | 36 (31, 42) | 1 (Reference) | 36 (31, 42) | 36 (31, 42) | 47 (41, 52) | 2.9 | 5.7 | 19.22 |
| 115–140 | 51 (46, 57) | 3 (2.5, 3.5) | 56 (51, 62) | 60 (54, 65) | 53 (47, 58) | ||||
| 140–160 | 11 (7,15) | 16 (14, 18) | 6 (3, 9) | 4 (1, 6) | 0 | ||||
| >160 | 0.08 (0, 0.02) | 32 (28, 36) | 0.03)0, 0.01) | 0.01 (0, 0.05) | 0 | ||||
| <115 | 60 years and more | 17 (13, 21) | 2.5 (2, 3) | 17 (13, 21) | 17 (13, 21) | 58 (52, 63) | 5.4 | 10.8 | 53.7 |
| 115–140 | 39 (33, 44) | 8 (7, 9) | 47 (41, 53) | 55 (50, 61) | 42 (36, 47) | ||||
| 140–160 | 29 (24, 34) | 24 (22, 26) | 25 (20, 30) | 21 (16, 25) | 0 | ||||
| >160 | 15 (11, 19) | 38 (32, 44) | 11)7, 14) | 7 (4, 10) | 0 | ||||
a
At the first scenario, minimum risk for hypertension was considered as 5-mmHg hypothetical intervention on systolic blood pressure above 140 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure above 82 mmHg. The corresponding values for the second and third scenarios were 10-mmHg hypothetical interventions and zero prevalence, respectively.