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Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Elsevier - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2020 Jun 28;139:110060. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110060

A novel covid-19 mathematical model with fractional derivatives: Singular and nonsingular kernels

Zizhen Zhang 1
PMCID: PMC7321058  PMID: 32834613

Abstract

In this paper, we considered a new mathematical model depicting the possibility of spread within a given general population. The model is constructed with five classes including susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and deaths. We presented a detailed analysis of the suggested model including, the derivation of equilibrium points endemic and disease-free, reproductive number using the next generation matrix, the stability analysis of the equilibrium points and finally the positiveness of the model solutions. The model was extended to the concept of fractional differentiation to capture different memories including power law, decay and crossover behaviors. A numerical method based on the Newton was used to provide numerical solutions for different memories.

Keywords: New mathematical model for covid-19, Stability analysis and reproductive number, Local and global asymptotic stability, Fractional calculus

1. Introduction

Partial and ordinary differential equations have been used in many academic disciplines to model real world problems occurring in real life in daily [1], [3], [4]. They are wider used as they depict the variation or changes in time and space, thus they can be used together with many others parameters to model a given problems [2], [5]. We should note that these differential operators do not replicate exactly complex problems, however some can really replicate real world scenario especially those appearing in classical mechanic where the Markovian processes where the initial starting point and the generator operators are used to future in time and space. It is also important to note that a given real world problem can be modeled using different mathematical models especially when the variation of the real world problem is not well understood by modelers. In the last passed months, the world has faced an outbreak of a fatal disease called corona or covid-19, it is known that such virus comes from bats and was transmitted to humans. The virus has spread in all the corners of the globe and has taken the life of many humans around the world. The outbreak lead mankind in great panic, thus forced them to focus their attention to observe, analyze and predict the future outbreak of the disease, thus one will find many mathematical equations within the available literature many mathematical models [7], [8], [9], [10], [11]. However those mathematical models have their advantages and disadvantage, this is due to the fact that the spread or transmission of the disease is still not well understood by human. In this paper, a relatively new mathematical model and the concept of fractional differentiation and integration will be used to include into mathematical model more effects of non-localities.

2. Preliminaries

We present here useful definitions of fractional differential and integral operators. These operators will be used in the next section in order to include into mathematical formulation different effect of non-localities that could be exhibited by the spread of covid-19.

Definition 2.1

Let f:R+R and β(n1,n),nN. The left Caputo fractional derivative of order of the function f is given by the following equality;

C0Dtϑu(t)=1Γ(nϑ)0t(ty)nϑ1u(n)(y)dy. (2.1)

Definition 2.2

The fractional integral associate to the new fractional integral with power-law kernel is defined as:

C0Itϑu(t)=1Γ(ϑ)0t(ty)ϑ1u(y)dy. (2.2)

Definition 2.3

Let u ∈ H 1(a, b), b > a, ϑ ∈ [0, 1] then the new Caputo derivative of fractional order is given by:

Dϑt(u(t))=M(ϑ)(1ϑ)atu(x)exp[ϑtx1ϑ]dx. (2.3)

where M(ϑ) is a normalization function such that M(0)=M(1)=1 [6]. But, if the function u ≠ H 1(a, b) then, new derivative called the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative can be defined as

Dϑt(u(t))=M(ϑ)(1ϑ)at(u(t)u(x))exp[ϑtx1ϑ]dx. (2.4)

Definition 2.4

u ∈ H 1(x, y), y > x, ϑ ∈ [0, 1] with the function f differentiable then, the definition of the new fractional derivative (Atangana-Baleanu derivative in Caputo sense) is given as

aABCDϑt[u(t)]=B(ϑ)1ϑatddtu(x)Eϑ[ϑ(tx)ϑ1ϑ]dx. (2.5)

where B(ϑ) has the same properties as in the case of the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative.

Here B(ϑ)=1ϑ+ϑΓ(ϑ).

It should be noted that we do not recover the original function when ϑ=0 except when at the origin the function vanishes. To avoid this kind of problem, the following definition is proposed.

Definition 2.5

Let u ∈ H 1(x, y), y > x, ϑ ∈ [0, 1] and not necessary differentiable then, the definition of the new fractional derivative (Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative in Riemann-Liouville sense) is given as [1].

aABRDϑt[u(t)]=B(ϑ)1ϑddtatu(x)Eϑ[ϑ(tx)ϑ1ϑ]dx. (2.6)

Definition 2.6

The fractional integral associate to the new fractional derivative with nonlocal kernel (Atangana-Baleanu fractional integral) is given as [1]:

aABCIϑt[u(t)]=1ϑB(ϑ)u(t)+ϑB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)atu(j)(tj)ϑ1dj. (2.7)

When alpha is zero we recover the initial function and if also alpha is 1, we obtain the ordinary integral.

3. Mathematical model

Although sometime mathematical models cannot replicate accurately the real world problem, of course due to that fact that the translation from real world observed problem to mathematical formula is not really accurate due to lack of information, or lack of accuracy to converting reality to mathematical formula. However, these models have been used in the last past decades with great success, thus their use is important to mankind for prediction. These prediction help human you have an idea of what could happen in near future, such that they can take some control measures to avoid worse case scenario. In this section therefore, we present a mathematical model, but simple, that could be used to predict the spread of covid-19 in a given population.

S˙(t)=αeSEαiSI+rR+ΛE˙(t)=αeSE+αiSIKEφEI˙(t)=KEβIμIR˙(t)=βI+φErRD˙(t)=μI (3.1)

Here

  • S(t) is the class of susceptible,

  • E(t) is the class of expressed population

  • I(t) is the infected class

  • R(t) is the class of recovered,

  • D(t) is the death clas

we present below the slandered analysis, that includes the first testing of disease-free equilibrium endemic-equilibrium, reproductive number, stability analysis.

This will be achieved by neglecting the death class, as such class does not give value to equilibrium.

For disease-free equilibrium we have

E0=(0,0,0,0)

For endemic-equilibrium, we have

αeS*E*αiS*I*+rR*+ΛαeS*E*+αiS*I*KE*φE*=0KE*βI*μI*=0βI*+φE*rR*=0 (3.2)
I*=Kβ+μE*R*=(βKβ+μ+φ)E*S*=K+φαi+αiKβ+μ (3.3)
Λ(αi+αe)(K+φαi+αiKβ+μ)(βKβ+μ+φ) (3.4)

Thus finally, we have

I*=Kβ+μΛ(αi+αe)(K+φαi+αiKβ+μ)(βKβ+μ+φ) (3.5)
R*=(βKβ+μ+φ)Λ(αi+αe)(K+φαi+αiKβ+μ)(βKβ+μ+φ) (3.6)
S*=K+φαi+αiKβ+μ (3.7)
E*=Λ(αi+αe)(K+φαi+αiKβ+μ)(βKβ+μ+φ) (3.8)

Now we deserve the reproductive number using the next generation matrix. To obtain this, we need only the following equations associate to the infection

E˙(t)=αeSE+αiSIKEφE (3.9)
I˙=KE(β+μ)I (3.10)
F=(αeSαiS00) (3.11)
V=(K+φ0Kβ+μ) (3.12)
FV1=(αeSαiS00)(β+μ(β+μ)(K+φ)0K(β+μ)(K+φ)β+μ(β+μ)(K+φ)) (3.13)
=(αeSK+φ+αiSK(β+μ)(K+φ)αiSβ+μ00) (3.14)

The reproductive number can be determined as

R0=αeS(β+μ)+αiSK(K+φ)(β+μ) (3.15)

Lemma 3.1

Lemma: There exist a unique endemic- equilibrium E* if R0 > 1 and no endemic if R0=0

Proof: To have endemic we need dE˙(t)dt>0 and dI(t)dt>0 That is to say

αeSE+αiSI(K+φ)E>0 (3.16)
KE(β+μ)I>0 (3.17)
αeSE+αiSI>(K+φ)E (3.18)
αeSE+αiISK+φ>E (3.19)

with

I<KEβ+μ (3.20)
αeS+αiKSβ+μK+φ>1 (3.21)
αeS(β+μ)+αiKS(k+φ)(β+μ)>1 (3.22)
k0>1 (3.23)

Thus there exists a unique endemic equilibrium if R 0 > 1.

The Jacobian matrix associated to the system is given as

J=(αeEαiIαeSαiSrαeE+αiIkφ+αeSαiS00Kβμ00φβr) (3.24)
J(t*)=(000r0kφ000Kβμ00φβr) (3.25)

Here the trace is given as trace (J(E0))=(K+φ+β+μ+r)<0det(J(E0))=0

4. Global asymptotic stability

In this section, we present the analysis of global asymptotic stability. Using the two equations involving the primary infections, we insist the following Lyapunov

L=1K+φE+1β+μI (4.1)

Thus applying the first derivative on both sides, we obtain

L˙=1K+φE˙+1β+μI˙=1K+φ(αeSE+αiSI(K+φ)E)+1β+μ(KE(β+μ)I)=1K+φ(αeSE+αiSI)+KEβ+μ(E+I)=[((1K+φ(αeSE+αiSI)+KEβ+μ)1E+I1](E+I)[((1K+φ(αeSE+αiSI)+KEβ+μ)1E+I1](E+I)[αeS(β+μ)+αeSK(K+φ)(β+μ)1](E+I)(R01)(E+I) (4.2)

Thus

If R 0 < 1, then dLdt<0 if dLdt=0 if E=I=0

5. Local and global stability of E*

In this section, we make use of the Jacobian matrix and the Lyapunov for endemic equilibrium. we start by the Jacobian matrix.

J=(αeS*αiS*αeSαiSrαeS*αiS*kφ+αeSαiS00Kβμ00φβr) (5.1)

The characteristic equation associate to the above matrix can the obtained with

5. (5.2)

where I is the 4 × 4 identity matrix

det(λ+δ1αeS*αiS*rδ1λ+δ2αiS*00Kλ+δ300φβλ+r) (5.3)

Thus

PJE*=λ4+a1λ3+a2λ2+a3λ+a4 (5.4)

The Hurwitz matrix for the above characteristic polynomial equation is given as

H=(a1a3001a2a400a1a3001a2a4) (5.5)
H1=a1>0
H2=a1a2a3>0
H3=a1a2a3a12a4a3>0
H4=a4H3>0

we now prove the global asymptotic stability by using the Lyapunov function however the death class is excluded

L=(SS*S*logSS*)+(EE*E*logEE*)+(II*I*logII*)+(RR*R*logRR*) (5.6)

Thus the derivative respect to t is given as

L˙=(SS*S)S˙+(II*I)I˙+(EE*E)E˙+(RR*R)R˙ (5.7)
=(RR*R)(βI+φErR)+(II*I)(KE(β+μ)I)+(αeSE+αiSI(K+φ)E)+(SS*S)(αeSEαiSI+rR+Λ) (5.8)
L˙(RR*R)(β(II*)+φ(EE*)r(RR*))+(II*I)(K(EE*)(β+μ)(II*))+(EE*E)(αe(SS*)(EE*)+αi(SS*)(II*)(K+φ)(EE*)+(SS*S)(αe(SS*)(EE*)αi(SS*)(II*)+r(RR*)+Λ) (5.9)
r(RR*)2R+βIβI*+φEφE*R*RβI+R*RβI*φER*R+φE*R*R(β+μ)(II*)2I+KEKE*I*IKE+I*IKE*+(EE*)2EαeSαe(EE*)2ES*(K+φ)(EE*)2E+αiSIαiSI*αiS*I+αiS*I*αiSIE*E+αiSI*E*E+αiS*IE*EαiS*I*E*Eαe(SS*)2SE+αeE*(SS*)2Sαi(SS*)2SI+αi(SS*)2SI*+rRrR*+ΛS*SrR+rR*S*SΛSS* (5.10)
βI+φE*+R*RβI*+φE*R*R+KE+I*IKE*+(EE*)2E+αiSI+αiS*I*+αiSI*E*E+αiS*IE*E+αiE(SS*)2S+αi(SS*)2II*+rR+Λ+rR*S*S+ΛS*S(r(RR*)2R+βI*+φE*βIR*R+φER*R+(β+μ)+(II*)2I+KE*+I*IKE+αe(EE*)2ES*+(K+φ)+(EE*)2E+αiSI*+αiS*I+αiSIE*E+αiS*I*E*E+αiS*I*E*E+αe(SS*)2SE+αi(SS*)2S+rR*+rRS*S+ΛS*S) (5.11)
AB

Therefore dLdt>0 if AB>0

dLdt=0 if A=B and dLdt<0 if AB<0.

6. Positive solutions

Differential operators defined as convolution of classical differential operators and kernel including power law, exponential decay function and the generalized Mittag-Leffler function have abilities to include into mathematical equations the effect of power law, fading memory and behaviors with crossover properties. Due to uncertainties around the spread of covid-19, we will use such differential operators to have more possibilities of spread. Thus in this section, we convert the classical differential operator to fractional counterpart.

Since the suggested Mathematical model predict the behavior of real world problem where the solutions represent positive numbers, we shall prove that ∀t ≥ 0, all the solutions are positives for all 3 cases of fractional derivatives. We start with Caputo-Fabrizio case,

0CFDϑtS(t)=αeSEαiSI+rR+Λ0CFDϑtE(t)=αeSE+αiSIKEφE0CFDϑtI(t)=KEβIμI0CFDϑtR(t)=βI+φErR0CFDϑtD(t)=μI (6.1)

we use the as yune. used by [11] where the suggested that all the product of two different classes should positive thus

0CFDϑtE(t)=αeSEαiSI(K+φ)E(K+φ)E (6.2)
E(t)E(0)exp[ϑ(K+φ)tM(ϑ)(1ϑ)(K+φ)]t>0 (6.3)
0CFDϑtR(t)=βI+φErRrR (6.4)
R(t)R(0)exp[ϑrtM(ϑ)(1ϑ)r]t>0. (6.5)
0CFDϑtI(t)=KE(β+μ)I(β+μ)I (6.6)
I(t)I(0)exp[ϑ(β+μ)tM(ϑ)(1ϑ)r(β+μ)] (6.7)

Since I(t)    ∀t ≥ 0 thus

D(t)=(1ϑ)μI(t)M(ϑ)+ϑμMϑ0tI(t)dτ0t0 (6.8)
0CFDϑtS(t)=αeSEαiSI+rR+ΛS(E+I)S(|E|+|I|)S(t)(suptDE|E|+suptDI|I(t)|)S(t)(|E|+|I|)S(t)MS(0)exp[ϑMtM(ϑ)(1ϑ)M] (6.9)

with power law kernel we have

0CDϑtS(t)=αeSEαiSI+rR+Λ0CDϑtE(t)=αeSE+αiSIKEφE0CDϑtI(t)=KEβIμI0CDϑtR(t)=βI+φErR0CDϑtD(t)=μI (6.10)

we did before, we have

S(t)S(0)Eϑ[Mtϑ]t0E(t)E(0)Eϑ[(K+φ)tϑ]t0I(t)I(0)Eϑ[(β+μ)tϑ]t0R(t)R(0)Eϑ[rtϑ]t0 (6.11)
D(t)=MI(ϑ)0tI(τ)(tτ)ϑ1dτt0 (6.12)

with Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

0ABCDϑtS(t)=αeSEαiSI+rR+Λ0ABCDϑtE(t)=αeSE+αiSIKEφE0ABCDϑtI(t)=KEβIμI0ABCDϑtR(t)=βI+φErR0ABCDϑtD(t)=μI (6.13)

Thus using the same routine

I(t)I(0)Eϑ[(β+μ)tϑAB(ϑ)(1ϑ)(β+μ)] (6.14)
E(t)E(0)Eϑ[(K+φ)tϑAB(ϑ)(1ϑ)(K+φ)] (6.15)
S(t)S(0)Sϑ[(M)tϑAB(ϑ)(1ϑ)M] (6.16)
R(t)R(0)Rϑ[rtϑAB(ϑ)(1ϑ)r] (6.17)
D(t)=(1ϑ)AB(ϑ)MI(t)+ϑMAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)×0tI(τ)(tτ)ϑ1dτt0 (6.18)

7. Numerical method for Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative

In this section, we handle the following Cauchy problem with Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative

{0CFDϑty(t)=f(t,y(t)),y(0)=y0 (7.1)

where the function f is non-linear. To present a numerical scheme for solution of our equation, we can reformulate the above equation as

y(t)y(0)=1ϑM(ϑ)f(t,y(t))+ϑM(Θ)0tf(τ,y(τ))dτ. (7.2)

At the point tn+1=(n+1)Δt, we have

y(tn+1)y(0)=1ϑM(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑM(ϑ)0tn+1f(τ,y(τ))dτ. (7.3)

at the point tn=nΔt, we have

y(tn)y(0)=1ϑM(ϑ)f(tn1,y(tn1))+ϑM(ϑ)0tnf(τ,y(τ))dτ. (7.4)

If we take the difference of this equations, we obtain

y(tn+1)y(tn)=1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(α)tntn+1f(τ,y(τ))dτ. (7.5)

and

y(tn+1)y(tn)=1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)j=2ntjtj+1f(τ,y(τ))dτ. (7.6)

Using the Newton polynomial, we can write the approximation of the function f(t, y(t)) as follows

Pn(τ)=f(tn2,y(tn2))+f(tn1,y(tn1))f(tn2,y(tn2))Δ(t)(τtn2)f(tn,y(tn))2f(tn1,y(tn1))+f(tn2,y(tn2))2(Δt)2×(τtn2)(τtn1). (7.7)

Thus putting this polynomial into the above equation, we write the following

yn+1yn=1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)j=2ntjtj+1{+f(tj2,yj2)+f(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)Δt(τtj2)+f(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)2(Δt)2×(τtj2)(τtj1)}dτ. (7.8)

and reorder as follows

yn+1yn=1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)j=2ntjtj+1{+f(tj2,yj2)+f(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)Δttjtj+1(τtj2)dτ+f(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)2(Δt)2×tjtj+1(τtj2)(τtj1)dτ}. (7.9)

We can have the following calculations for the above integrals

tjtj+1(τtj2)dτ=52(Δt)2 (7.10)
tjtj+1(τtj2)(τtj1)dτ=236(Δt)3 (7.11)

If we replace them into above scheme, we obtain the following scheme

yn+1=yn+1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{+f(tj2,yj2)Δt+[f(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)]52Δt+[f(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)236Δt}. (7.12)

and we can rearrange as

yn+1=yn+1ϑM(ϑ)[f(tn,y(tn))f(tn1,y(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43f(tj1,yj1)Δt+512f(tj2,yj2)Δt+2312f(tj,yj)Δt} (7.13)

8. Numerical method for Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

Now we deal with the following Cauchy problem with AtanganaâBaleanu fractional derivative

{0ABCDϑty(t)=f(t,y(t)),y(0)=y0 (8.1)

In this section, we provide a numerical scheme to solve this equation. Applying Atangana-Baleanu integral, we convert the above equation into

y(t)y(0)=1ϑAB(ϑ)f(t,y(t))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)×0tf(τ,y(τ))(tτ)ϑ1dτ. (8.2)

At the point tn+1=(n+1)Δt, we have

y(tn+1)y(0)=1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)×0tn+1f(τ,y(τ))(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ. (8.3)

at the point tn=nΔt, we have

y(tn+1)y(0)=1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2n×jtj+1f(τ,y(τ))dτ. (8.4)

Here, for the approximation of the function f(t, y(t)), we use the Newton polynomial which is given by

Pn(τ)=f(tn2,y(tn2))+f(tn1,y(tn1))f(tn2,y(tn2))Δ(t)(τtn2)f(tn,y(tn))2f(tn1,y(tn1))+f(tn2,y(tn2))2(Δt)2×(τtn2)(τtn1). (8.5)

Thus if we write this polynomial in (8.4), we have the following

yn+1=y0+1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2ntjtj+1{+f(tj2,yj2)+f(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)Δt(τtj2)+f(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)2(Δt)2×(τtj2)(τtj1)}(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ. (8.6)

and we can reorganize

yn+1=y0+1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2n{+tjtj+1f(tj2,yj2)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ+tjtj+1f(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)Δt(τtj2)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ+tjtj+1f(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)2(Δt)2×(τtj2)(τtj1)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ}. (8.7)

Thus we have

yn+1=y0+1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2nf(tj2,yj2)Δttjtj+1(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2nf(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)Δt×tjtj+1(τtj2)(τtj1)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ+ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ)j=2nf(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)2(Δt)2×tjtj+1(τtj2)(τtj1)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ. (8.8)

When calculating the above integrals

tjtj+1(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ=(Δt)ϑϑ[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]tjtj+1(τtj2)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ=(Δt)ϑ+1ϑ(ϑ+1)[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]tjtj+1(τtj2)(τtj1)(tn+1τ)ϑ1dτ=(Δt)ϑ+2ϑ(ϑ+1)(ϑ+2)×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]] (8.9)

and putting this equalities into above scheme, we can obtain the following scheme

yn+1=y0+1ϑAB(ϑ)f(tn,y(tn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2nf(tj2,yj2)[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)j=2nf(tj1,yj1)f(tj2,yj2)×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)j=2nf(tj,yj)2f(tj1,yj1)+f(tj2,yj2)×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (8.10)

9. Application to corona model with Caputo-Fabrizio and Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

In this section, we apply the differential and integral operators to the suggested mathematical model of COVID-19. Here, the classical differential operator will be replaced by the Caputo-Fabrizio and Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative.

For simplicity, we write above equation (6.1) as follows;

0CFDϑtS˙(t)=S1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0CFDϑtE˙(t)=E1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0CFDϑtI˙(t)=I1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0CFDϑtR˙(t)=R1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0CFDϑtD˙(t)=D1(t,S,E,I,R,D) (9.1)

where

S1(t,S,E,I,R,D)=αeSEαiSI+rR+ΛE1(t,S,E,I,R,D)=αeSE+αiSIKEφEI1(t,S,E,I,R,D)=KEβIμIR1(t,S,E,I,R,D)=βI+φErRD1(t,S,E,I,R,D)=μI (9.2)

After applying Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative we have the following

We can have the following scheme for this model

S(tn+1)=S(tn)+1ϑM(ϑ)[S1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))S1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43S1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))Δt+512S1(tn2,S(tn2),E(tn2),I(tn2),R(tn2),D(tn2))Δt+2312S1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))Δt} (9.3)
E(tn+1)=E(tn)+1ϑM(ϑ)[E1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))E1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43E1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))Δt+512E1(tn2,S(tn2),E(tn2),I(tn2),R(tn2),D(tn2))Δt+2312E1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))Δt} (9.4)
I(tn+1)=I(tn)+1ϑM(ϑ)[I1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))I1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43I1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))Δt+512I1(tn2,S(tn2),E(tn2),I(tn2),R(tn2),D(tn2))Δt+2312I1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))Δt} (9.5)
R(tn+1)=R(tn)+1ϑM(ϑ)[R1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))R1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43R1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))Δt+512R1(tn2,S(tn2),E(tn2),I(tn2),R(tn2),D(tn2))Δt+2312R1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))Δt} (9.6)
D(tn+1)=D(tn)+1ϑM(ϑ)[D1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))D1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))]+ϑM(ϑ)nn=2{43D1(tn1,S(tn1),E(tn1),I(tn1),R(tn1),D(tn1))Δt+512D1(tn2,S(tn2),E(tn2),I(tn2),R(tn2),D(tn2))Δt+2312D1(tn,S(tn),E(tn),I(tn),R(tn),D(tn))Δt} (9.7)

we do the same routine for Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative for the equation (6.13) as

0ABCDϑtS(t)=S1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0ABCDϑtE(t)=E1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0ABCDϑtI(t)=I1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0ABCDϑtR(t)=R1(t,S,E,I,R,D)0ABCDϑtD(t)=D1(t,S,E,I,R,D) (9.8)

Thus, we can present the following scheme for numerical solution of our above equation as

Sn+1=S0+1ϑAB(ϑ)(S1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2n(S1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)×j=2n(S1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))(S1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)×j=2n[(S1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))2(S1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))+(S1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))]×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (9.9)
En+1=E0+1ϑAB(ϑ)(E1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2n(E1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)×j=2n(E1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))(E1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)×j=2n[(E1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))2(E1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))+(E1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))]×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (9.10)
In+1=I0+1ϑAB(ϑ)(I1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2n(I1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)×j=2n(I1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))(I1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)×j=2n[(I1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))2(I1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))+(I1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))]×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (9.11)
Rn+1=R0+1ϑAB(ϑ)(R1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2n(R1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)×j=2n(R1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))(R1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)×j=2n[(R1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))2(R1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))+(R1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))]×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (9.12)
Dn+1=D0+1ϑAB(ϑ)(D1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+1)j=2n(D1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))[(nj+1)ϑ(nj)ϑ]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+2)×j=2n(D1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))(D1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))×[(nj+1)ϑ(nj+3+2ϑ)(nj)ϑ(nj+3+3ϑ)]+ϑ(Δt)ϑAB(ϑ)Γ(ϑ+3)×j=2n[(D1(tn,Sn,En,In,Rn,Dn))2(D1(tn1,Sn1,En1,In1,Rn1,Dn1))+(D1(tn2,Sn2,En2,In2,Rn2,Dn2))]×[(nj+1)ϑ[2(nj)2+(3ϑ+10)(nj)+2ϑ2+9ϑ+12](nj)ϑ[2(nj)2+(5ϑ+10)(nj)6ϑ2+18ϑ+12]]. (9.13)

10. Numerical simulation

In this section, using the obtained numerical solutions, numerical simulations are performed for different values of fractional orders. The numerical simulation are thus depicted in Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4, Fig. 5, Fig. 6, Fig. 7, Fig. 8, Fig. 9, Fig. 10, Fig. 11, Fig. 12, Fig. 13, Fig. 14, Fig. 15, Fig. 16, Fig. 17 . Here the value we take is Λ=0,αe=0.3,αi=0.4,r=0.23,k=0.3,φ=0.25,μ=0.12,β=0.45 also we the initial condition value are S(0)=100,E(0)=10,I(0)=3,R(0)=0,D(0)=0.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.79.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.88.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.91.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

Numerical simulation for AB derivative of death class for the value of α=0.91.

Fig. 5.

Fig. 5

Numerical simulation for AB derivative of expressed population class for the value of α=0.91.

Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

Numerical simulation for AB derivative of Infected class for the value of α=0.91.

Fig. 7.

Fig. 7

Numerical simulation for AB derivative of recovered class for the value of α=0.91.

Fig. 8.

Fig. 8

Numerical simulation for AB derivative of susceptible class for the value of α=0.91.

Fig. 9.

Fig. 9

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=1.

Fig. 10.

Fig. 10

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.85.

Fig. 11.

Fig. 11

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.89.

Fig. 12.

Fig. 12

Numerical Simulation for AB Derivative for α=0.94.

Fig. 13.

Fig. 13

Numerical simulation for CF derivative for the death class for the value of α=0.85.

Fig. 14.

Fig. 14

Numerical simulation for CF derivative for the exposed class for the value of α=0.85.

Fig. 15.

Fig. 15

Numerical simulation for CF derivative for the infected class for the value of α=0.85.

Fig. 16.

Fig. 16

Numerical simulation for CF derivative for the recovered class for the value of α=0.85.

Fig. 17.

Fig. 17

Numerical simulation for CF derivative for the susceptible class for the value of α=0.85.

11. Conclusion

To understand the propagation of covid-19 virus among humans, mathematician rely on the concept of differentiation and integration to construct linear and nonlinear ordinary or partial differential equations that could be used to depict not accurately but approximately the spread of the virus within a given population. They divide the total population in several sub-classes starting with susceptible, infected and deaths classes, these number are functions of time and space. The solution of these equations give human an indication on how severe the spread can be and what parameter is needed to control the spread. Thus in this paper a relatively simple and new mathematical model of covid-19 spread was suggested and analyzed. The model was further extended to capture more non-localities, the modified and the extended models were solved numerically using a recent developed numerical scheme based on the Newton polynomial interpolation, and finally numerical simulations are depicted for different values of fractional orders.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Zizhen Zhang: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they do not have any financial or non- financial conflict of interests.

Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to the editor and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions on the paper. This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of the Higher Education Institutions of Anhui Province (No. KJ2020A0002).

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