Fig. 4.
Effect of inbreeding on reproductive success, survival, and body mass. (A, C, E, and G) Lines are predicted mean effects of inbreeding (FGRM) over the metapopulation system, shaded blue areas show 95% BCIs, and individual observations are plotted as points (omitted from E for clarity). (B, D, F, and H) Island-specific predicted mean effects of inbreeding. (A–D) Lifetime reproductive success (A and B) and annual reproductive success (C and D) were estimated as the number of offspring recruiting the adult population that an individual produced during its lifetime or per year, respectively. (E and F) The relationship between survival probability and inbreeding. (G and H) Body mass is based on all adult measurements and adjusted to trait value as 1-y-old. The predicted lines were produced using animal models fitted in INLA (A, D, G, and H), or capture–mark–recapture models in JAGS (E and F). The results of these models are presented in SI Appendix, Table S5.