TABLE 1.
Actual and predicted COVID‐19 infected patients
| Laboratory confirmed cases a | Mean number of predicted total infected cases b | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Total infected cases | Number of fatalities (case fatality rate) | Total cases (% of the total population) | Number of fatalities (case fatality rate) |
| Spain | 177 633 | 18 579 (10.5%) | 7 013 216 (15%) | 18 579 (0.26%) |
| Italy | 165 155 | 21 647 (13.1%) | 5 925 258 (9.8%) | 21 647 (0.37%) |
| France | 106 206 | 17 167 (16.2%) | 1 958 205 (3%) | 17 167 (0.88%) |
| UK | 98 476 | 12 868 (13.1%) | 1 832 922 (2.7%) | 12 868 (0.7%) |
| Germany | 130 450 | 3569 (2.7%) | 586 487 (0.7%) | 3569 (0.61%) |
a
The number of laboratory confirmed cases was obtained from ECDC report on April 16, 2020.
b
Posterior predictions estimate on March 28th based on the study of Ferguson et al. (2020). 12