Table 3.
Projected accumulated number of cases based on a 7-year period among 35–64 years old Mexicans under different assumptions based on unadjusted and adjusted 2006 physical inactivity prevalence and 2012 physical inactivity prevalence
| Outcome | ENSANUT 2006a | ENSANUT 2012b | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case scenario | Estimates based on unadjusted prevalence of physical inactivity | Estimates based on adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity | |||
| Increase in events | Percent difference change | Increase in events | Percent difference change | ||
| N | N | % | N | % | |
| Incidence of CHD | 1267,400 ± 9.7 | 10,300 ± 99.5 | 0.8 | 14,200 ± 122.1 | 1.1 |
| Incidence of stroke | 293,400 ± 2.6 | 2200 ± 19.2 | 0.8 | 3200 ± 21.8 | 1.1 |
| Incidence of T2D | 2586,300 ± 26.4 | 27,100 ± 155.1 | 1.0 | 34,000 ± 164 | 1.3 |
| Total myocardial infarction | 294,000 ± 2.8 | 1500 ± 17.5 | 0.5 | 2300 ± 23.5 | 0.8 |
| CHD mortality | 141,900 ± 0.6 | 350 ± 4.1 | 0.2 | 600 ± 5.5 | 0.4 |
| Stroke mortality | 67,000 ± 0.5 | 400 ± 3.7 | 0.6 | 600 ± 4.2 | 0.9 |
Plus-minus values—means and SE from the Monte Carlo simulations
Values were rounded to the nearest 100 for all outcomes
Unadjusted—self reported physical inactivity
Adjusted—self reported physical inactivity adjusted for accelerometer values
CHD coronary heart disease, T2D type 2 diabetes
aEstimates are based on physical inactivity prevalence in 2006 (base case scenario)
bEstimates are based on physical inactivity prevalence in 2012