Table 5 –
Clinical consequences showing the number of biopsies that could be avoided for initial surveillance biopsy or subsequent surveillance biopsy
| HGC probability | Biopsies | High-grade cancers | Primary Gleason 4 cancers | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performed | Avoided | Found | Missed | Found | Missed | |
| Initial surveillance biopsy | ||||||
| Biopsy all | 1000 | 0 | 214 | 0 | 44 | 0 |
| Initial biopsy: risk by clinical variables + PSA | ||||||
| >5% | 943 (896–970) | 57 (30–104) | 214 (157–284) | 0 (0–24) | 44 (21–88) | 0 (0–24) |
| >10% | 761 (689–821) | 239 (179–311) | 201 (146–270) | 13 (3–45) | 44 (21–88) | 0 (0–24) |
| >15% | 509 (432–586) | 491 (414–568) | 164 (114–229) | 50 (26–96) | 38 (17–80) | 6 (1–35) |
| Initial biopsy: risk by clinical variables + 4K | ||||||
| >5% | 956 (912–979) | 44 (21–88) | 214 (157–284) | 0 (0–24) | 44 (21–88) | 0 (0–24) |
| >10% | 748 (676–809) | 252 (191–324) | 195 (141–263) | 19 (6–54) | 44 (21–88) | 0 (0–24) |
| >15% | 522 (445–598) | 478 (402–555) | 182 (130–250) | 31 (14–71) | 44 (21–88) | 0 (0–24) |
| Subsequent surveillance biopsies | ||||||
| Biopsy all | 1000 | 0 | 147 | 0 | 47 | 0 |
| Risk by clinical variables + PSA | ||||||
| >5% | 844 (789–886) | 156 (114–211) | 147 (105–201) | 0 (0–18) | 47 (26–85) | 0 (0–18) |
| >10% | 692 (627–750) | 308 (250–373) | 133 (93–185) | 14 (5–41) | 43 (23–79) | 5 (1–26) |
| >15% | 445 (380–513) | 555 (487–620) | 109 (74–158) | 38 (19–73) | 43 (23–79) | 5 (1–26) |
| Risk by clinical variables + 4K | ||||||
| >5% | 848 (794–890) | 152 (110–206) | 142 (101–196) | 5 (1–26) | 47 (26–85) | 0 (0–18) |
| >10% | 654 (588–715) | 346 (285–412) | 133 (93–185) | 14 (5–41) | 47 (26–85) | 0 (0–18) |
| >15% | 408 (344–475) | 592 (525–656) | 100 (66–147) | 47 (26–85) | 38 (19–73) | 9 (3–34) |
HGC = high-grade cancer.
Results are presented as the number (95% confidence interval) per 1000 men.