Figure 4.

Observed and predicted CWD prevalence in mule deer herds of Colorado (US)

• Individual points are surveillance data from five Colorado mule deer herds, collected over 15–21 years. Each herd is a different colour. Because outbreaks were asynchronous, prevalence of individual herd data segments were aligned by time points rather than by calendar year. Values were then averaged across each generic ‘year’ to generate a composite epidemic curve (solid black line). The standard survey design (detecting 1% prevalence with 95% confidence; dotted red line).