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. 2020 Jul 1;71(12):3174–3181. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa864

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© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com

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Figure 1. — Predicted coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in Sweden with different voluntary adherence strategies. Plotted are median numbers of COVID-19 deaths predicted by modeling current Swedish public health mandates and individual voluntary behaviors. These are compared against reported COVID-19 deaths in Sweden. A moderate level of individual self-isolation (SI) is sufficient to well reproduce the reported death tolls. Data are shown for 3-day doubling times (see Supplementary Figures 4 and 5 for alternates). Numbers in parentheses represent interventions listed in Methods. April predictions are enlarged in the inset. Abbreviation: SD, social distancing; Vol, Voluntary; WFH, work from home.