Table 1.
Parameters and initial conditions description for models (1) and (2)
| Parameter | Meaning | Value | 95% CI | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| q | Quarantine rate of close contacts | 0.2653 | (0.2651, 0.2655) | Estimated |
| β | Transmission rate | 0.0792 | (0.0788, 0.0796) | Estimated |
| k | Relative transmission strength of exposed individuals to the undiagnosed infectious individuals | 0.5825 | (0.5823, 0.5827) | Estimated |
| bsp | Transfer rate of suspected individuals to the unquarantined susceptible class | 0.0867 | (0.0866, 0.0867) | Estimated |
| diq | Transfer rate of undiagnosed infectious individuals to the confirmed class | 0.1333 | (0.1277, 0.1390) | Estimated |
| dsp | Transfer rate of unquarantined susceptible individuals to the suspected class | 3.8124e-05 | (0.3573e-04, 0.4051e-04) | Estimated |
| dep | Transfer rate of traced and free latent individuals to the suspected class | 0.3106 | (0.3105, 0.3106) | Estimated |
| dpq | Transfer rate of suspected individuals to the confirmed class | 0.1130 | (0.1129, 0.1130) | Estimated |
| c(t) | Contact rate | c(t) = c1 + c2 exp(−c3t) | Estimated | |
| c1Minimum contact rate | 0.2362 | (0.2225, 0.2499) | ||
| c2Adjustment coefficient | 20.0877 | (20.0092, 20.1662) | ||
| c3Exponential decline rate | 0.1249 | (0.1238, 0.1259) | ||
| δ | Death rate due to infection | 0.0022 | (0.0021, 0.0022) | Estimated |
| γ | Recovery rate | 0.0154 | (0.0149, 0.0159) | Estimated |
| λ | Release rate of traced susceptible individuals to the unquarantined susceptible class | 1/14 | – | 18 |
| ε | Transfer rate of non-isolated latent individuals to the undiagnosed infectious class | 1/5.2 | – | 4 |
| S(0) | Initial value of susceptible individuals in the free environment | 1.3875e+09 | (1.3873e+09, 1.3877e+09) | Estimated |
| Sq(0) | Initial value of quarantined susceptible individuals | 781 | (777, 784) | Estimated |
| E(0) | Initial value of non-isolated latent individuals | 1.170e+03 | (1.168e+03, 1.172e+03) | Estimated |
| Eq(0) | Initial value of isolated latent individuals | 2.653e+03 | (2.653e+03, 2.654e+03) | Estimated |
| I(0) | Initial value of undiagnosed infectious individuals | 794 | (792, 796) | Estimated |
| P(0) | Initial value of suspected individuals | 1.888e+03 | (1.886e+03, 1.890e+03) | Estimated |
| Q(0) | Initial value of confirmed and isolated individuals | 771 | – | Reported data |
| R(0) | Initial value of recovered individuals | 34 | – | Reported data |
| H(0) | Initial value of cumulative confirmed cases | 830 | – | Reported data |
| Y(0) | Initial value of cumulative suspected cases | 1072 | – | Reported data |
| Z(0) | Initial value of cumulative deaths | 25 | – | Reported data |
| N | Total population in the mainland of China | 1 400 000 000 | – | Reported data |