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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Jul 1.
Published in final edited form as: Lancet HIV. 2020 Mar 5;7(7):e491–e503. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(20)30033-3

Figure 2. Projected reductions in HIV incidence at status quo service levels compared to implementation of optimal strategies at previously-documented scale-up and ideal implementation.

Figure 2.

The 5- and 10-year targets correspond to 75% and 90% reductions in the number of new HIV infections in each city in 2025 and 2030, compared to 2020. The 2020 projections were constructed by holding all health services at their 2015 levels except for PrEP which was held at 2017 levels while accounting for externally reported population growth and demographic shifts in each city. More details regarding the construction of status quo scenarios can be found in a previous study.26 The blue shaded band surrounding the ideal implementation scenario incidence estimates represented the 95% credible interval on the optimal combination implementation scenario, derived from probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Credible intervals on the status quo and previously-documented scale-up estimates are suppressed for clarity, and presented in the supplementary appendix.