Table 2.
Simulation key output measures of interest obtained over 1000 simulation replications. Strategies relate to the epidemic curves for cases requiring intensive care equivalent to those contained in Fig. 2
| Scenario | Strategy | Capacity (intensive care beds) | Mean length of stay (days) | Continuous days at maximum capacity; mean (95% CIs) | Peak daily capacity-dependent deaths; mean (95% CIs) | Peak daily capacity-independent deaths; mean (95% CIs) | Capacity-dependent deaths over the pandemic; mean (95% CIs) | Capacity-independent deaths over the pandemic; mean (95% CIs) | Total deaths over the pandemic; mean (95% CIs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No isolation | 45 | 8.07 | 67 (55–79) | 107 (79–136) | 3 (0–6) | 3778 (3086–4494) | 257 (229–285) | 4031 (3325–4761) |
| 2 | Isolation | 45 | 8.07 | 76 (53–91) | 33 (19–48) | 3 (0–6) | 1509 (1182–1853) | 340 (306–377) | 1849 (1500–2205) |
| 3 | Isolation | 76 | 8.07 | 64 (47–77) | 29 (15–45) | 5 (1–9) | 1202 (892–1527) | 498 (453–543) | 1699 (1355–2057) |
| 4 | Isolation | 100 | 8.07 | 56 (41–69) | 26 (12–42) | 6 (2–11) | 996 (702–1308) | 604 (552–658) | 1598 (1268–1940) |
| 5 | Isolation | 45 | 6.05 | 69 (44–85) | 31 (17–46) | 4 (1–8) | 1360 (1032–1696) | 417 (377–459) | 1776 (1424–2132) |
| 6 | Isolation | 45 | 10.09 | 82 (59–97) | 34 (21–49) | 2 (0–6) | 1607 (1272–1956) | 290 (257–323) | 1896 (1543–2257) |
| 7 | Isolation (flattened) | 45 | 8.07 | 104 (42–125) | 20 (9–32) | 2 (0–6) | 1310 (973–1655) | 440 (398–481) | 1750 (1405–2115) |
| 8 | Isolation (flattened) | 76 | 8.07 | 82 (43–104) | 16 (5–29) | 5 (1–9) | 907 (606–1229) | 647 (588–703) | 1552 (1213–1903) |
| 9 | Isolation (flattened) | 100 | 8.07 | 68 (29–88) | 13 (2–26) | 6 (2–11) | 652 (392–945) | 778 (706–846) | 1428 (1115–1761) |
| 10 | Isolation (flattened) | 100 | 6.05 | 48 (0–74) | 10 (0–22) | 8 (3–14) | 382 (180–627) | 917 (814–1004) | 1296 (1000–1614) |