Table 4.
Estimates of health impacts in 73 Gavi countries in year 2023–2035 for the baseline scenario.
| RSV associated | UA | PATH | Average across models |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total RSV cases averted^ | 10,106,070 (3,493,773–20,811,437) |
12,553,081 (4,385,604–24,456,864) |
11,329,575 |
| Non-severe cases averted | 6,053,139 (1,880,906–13,775,109) |
8,868,303 (2,911,693–18,173,349) |
7,460,721 |
| Severe cases averted | NA | 3,684,778 (1,473,911–6,283,516) |
3,684,778 |
| Hospital admissions averted | 4,052,931 (1,612,867–7,036,328) |
2,840,087 (1,136,035–4,724,105) |
3,446,509 |
| Deaths averted | 177,717 (70,418–309,811) |
123,714 (49,486–207,619) |
150,716 |
| YLDs averted | 35,963 (13,439–67,740) |
37,369 (13,914–68,707) |
36,666 |
| YLLs averted | 11,927,676 (4,724,075–20,806,417) |
8,520,783 (3,408,313–14,299,729) |
10,224,230 |
| DALYs averted* | 11,963,639 (4,737,529–20,874,133) |
8,558,152 (3,422,227–14,368,437) |
10,260,896 |
| Number needed to vaccinate to avert a death | 3,339 (1,915–8,426) |
4,796 (2,858–11,990) |
4,067 |
| Infant cases averted per 100,000 vaccinated pregnant women | 1,703 (589–3,507) |
2,116 (739–4,122) |
1,909 |
| Infant deaths averted per 100,000 vaccinated pregnant women | 30 (12–52) |
21 (8–35) |
25 |
| Proportion of RSV deaths averted among children < 6 months (total) | 0.27 (0.11–0.46) |
0.27 (0.11–0.46) |
0.27 |
| Proportion of RSV deaths averted among children < 6 months (in 2035) | 0.41 (0.16–0.71) |
0.42 (0.17–0.70) |
0.42 |
Abbreviations: DALY, disability-adjusted life year; NA, not applicable; RSV, respiratory syncytial virus; UA, University of Antwerp in partnership with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; YLD, years lived with disability; YLL, years of life lost.
Baseline scenario applied vaccine efficacy of 60% and 5 months duration of protection. Values in parenthesis represent estimates from minimum (Scenario 4) and maximum (Scenario 7) scenarios.
^
UA model applied: Total RSV cases = non-severe cases + hospital admissions. PATH model applied: Total RSV cases = non-severe + severe cases.
*
Undiscounted DALYs are used.