Supplementary Fig. 1.

The predicted trajectory of a successfully contained national COVID-19 epidemic in the United Republic of Tanzania, achieved without any contact tracing and isolation. In this simulation, a rigorous 15-week lock down was initiated from week 5 onwards and complemented by complete containment of imported cases, as well as contact tracing and isolation of confirmed cases. Rigorous lock down was assumed to achieve 90% reduction of exposure behaviours by 90% of the population. Complete 100% containment of imported cases assumes that all inbound international visitors are fully isolated for three weeks (Hu et al., 2020; Kam et al., 2020; Ling et al., 2020; Linton et al., 2020; Rothe et al., 2020; Xing et al., 2020; Zou et al., 2020), except those coming from countries that may be certified as free of local transmission by WHO in the future. However, these simulations differ from Fig. 1 in that absolutely no contact tracing and isolation was assumed.