Fig. 2.

The simulated epidemic trajectories for slightly less robust national COVID-19 epidemic containment responses in the United Republic of Tanzania than that illustrated inFig. 1, all of which are predicted to fail and result in a catastrophic rebound of transmission, morbidity and mortality. All these simulations have identical input parameters to Fig. 1 except for (1) shortening the lock down period by 3 weeks, from 15 to 12 weeks (Panels A and B), (2) delaying the lock down by 3 weeks, starting on week 8 rather than week 5 (Panels C and D), (3) reducing the coverage and protective effectiveness of exposure behaviour reduction from 90% to 80% (Panels E and F), and (4) reducing importation containment from 100% to 90% (Panels G and H).