Fig. 4.

The simulated epidemic trajectories for national COVID-19 epidemic containment responses in the United Republic of Tanzania with slightly delayed or less rigorous lock down than illustrated inFig. 1, all of which necessitated extension of the lock down period to achieve successful containment. All these simulations have identical input parameters to Fig. 1 except for (1) delaying the lock down by 3 weeks, starting on week 8 rather than week 5 (Panels A and B), (2) reducing the coverage and protective effectiveness of exposure behaviour reduction from 90% to 80% (Panels C, D, E and F), (3) removing the contact tracing and isolation component (Panels E and F), and (4) necessarily extending the lock down period from 15 to 18 weeks (Panels A and B) or from 15 to 40 weeks (Panels C, D, E and F).