Table 5.
Scenario analysis—ICER versus no screening (in USD)
| Scenario | ECG 12-lead | Z14 |
|---|---|---|
| Treatment for AF | ||
| Warfarin | $43,585 | $28,654 |
| Rivaroxaban | $67,597 | $55,540 |
| Dabigatran 150 mg | $61,765 | $49,389 |
| Edoxaban 60 mg | $58,750 | $45,022 |
| Background detection rate | ||
| 3% | $56,624 | $47,222 |
| 10% | $64,721 | $50,105 |
| Prevalence of undiagnosed AF | ||
| − 25% vs. base case | $65,073 | $51,074 |
| +25% vs. base case | $54,569 | $45,900 |
| Annual progression risk from paroxysmal to permanent AF | ||
| 29% | $58,741 | $48,347 |
| Specificity for Z14 and confirmatory screening with ECG 12-lead | ||
| 92% | – | $48,489 |
| Alternative utility values | ||
| Time trade-off | $37,043 | $30,122 |
| Standard gamble | $38,416 | $31,227 |
| Alternative first-year discontinuation rate | ||
| 50.5% | $132,945 | $95,436 |
AF atrial fibrillation, ECG electrocardiogram, ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, OAC oral anticoagulant, Z14 Zenicor screening for 14 days