Table 1.
Predicted change in the distribution of tigers and leopards in and around Bandhavgarh Tiger Reserve, Madhya Pradesh, India under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios for the timeline 2050s and 2070s using the model developed by Model for Inter-disciplinary Research on Climate change (MIROC5).
| Species | Scenario | Total suitable habitat | Stable habitat (ha) | Stable habitat (%) | Gain (ha) | Gain (%) | Loss (ha) | Loss (%) | Net gain/net loss (ha) | Net gain/net loss (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger | Current | 65,499.17 | 65,499.17 | 100.00 | ||||||
| RCP 2.6 (2050) | 64,987.03 | 58,125.97 | 88.74 | 6,861.06 | 10.48 | 7,373.20 | 11.26 | − 512.14 | 0.0013 | |
| RCP 8.5 (2050) | 57,764.33 | 50,289.49 | 76.78 | 7,474.84 | 11.41 | 15,209.68 | 23.22 | − 7,734.84 | − 0.0012 | |
| RCP 2.6 (2070) | 64,377.20 | 61,732.99 | 94.25 | 2,644.20 | 4.04 | 3,766.18 | 5.75 | − 1,121.97 | − 0.0001 | |
| RCP 8.5 (2070) | 61,701.48 | 60,226.52 | 91.95 | 1,474.95 | 2.25 | 5,272.65 | 8.05 | − 3,797.69 | − 0.0004 | |
| Leopard | Current | 39,770.19 | 39,770.19 | 100 | ||||||
| RCP 2.6 (2050) | 43,564.73 | 36,745.43 | 92.39 | 6,819.30 | 17.14 | 3,024.76 | 7.60 | 3,794.54 | 0.0009 | |
| RCP 8.5 (2050) | 44,120.20 | 36,914.83 | 92.82 | 7,205.37 | 18.11 | 2,855.36 | 7.17 | 4,350.01 | 0.00012 | |
| RCP 2.6 (2070) | 42,152.81 | 36,730.46 | 92.35 | 5,422.34 | 13.63 | 3,039.73 | 7.64 | 2,382.62 | − 0.0004 | |
| RCP 8.5 (2070) | 42,585.37 | 37,201.631 | 93.54 | 5,383.74 | 13.53 | 2,568.56 | 6.45 | 2,815.18 | 0.0001 |