Table 3.
Pubertal development and transition probabilities according our Markov model.
Age (years) | Pubertal developmenta | Markov parameters | Girls | Boys |
---|---|---|---|---|
9 | A | p1 | 0.811 | 0.944 |
B | 1-p1 | 0.189 | 0.056 | |
9->12 | A->A | q11 | 0.127 | 0.259 |
A->B | q12 | 0.592 | 0.717 | |
A->C | 1-q11-q12 | 0.282 | 0.025 | |
B->B | q22 | 0.733 | 0.500 | |
B->C | 1-q22 | 0.267 | 0.500 | |
12->17 | A->B | r11 | 0.000 | 0.491 |
A->C | 1-r11 | 1.000 | 0.509 | |
B->B | r21 | 0.000 | 0.110 | |
B->C | 1-r21 | 1.000 | 0.890 | |
C->C | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
aA = pre-pubertal (Tanner stage 1), B = early pubertal (Tanner stage 2–3), C = late-pubertal (Tanner stage 4–5).