Table 3.

Observed and Model-Predicted 10-Year OS Stratified by Patients’ Characteristics

	N (%)	Observed OS (%) (SE)	CancerMath OS (Mean) (%)	PREDICT OS (Mean) (%)	Difference 1 (%) (95% CI) (CancerMath-Observed)	P value1	Difference 2 (%) (95% CI) (PREDICT-Observed)	P value2	Difference 3 (%) (95% CI) (CancerMath -PREDICT)	P value3
All patients	397	82.6 (0.019)	78.3	72.0	−4.4 (−5.7, −3.0)	<0.001	−10.6 (−12.6, −8.6)	<0.001	6.3 (5.1, 7.4)	<0.001
Age at diagnosis (yr)
≤60	331	86.4 (0.019)	81.6	74.7	−4.8 (−5.9, −3.7)	<0.001	−11.7 (−13.8, −9.6)	<0.001	6.8 (5.6, 8.1)	<0.001
>60	66	63.6 (0.059)	61.6	58.2	−2.1 (−6.0, 1.9)	0.299	−5.4 (−10.7, −0.2)	0.041	3.4 (0.9, 5.9)	0.009
Tumor size (mm)
≤20	180	91.1 (0.021)	83.9	80.9	−7.2 (−8.7, −5.7)	<0.001	−10.2 (−12.3, −8.2)	<0.001	3.1 (2.1, 4.1)	<0.001
21–50	193	76.2 (0.031)	74.7	66.8	−1.5 (−3.5, 0.4)	0.129	−9.4 (−12.5, −6.4)	<0.001	7.9 (6.1, 9.7)	<0.001
>50	24	70.8 (0.093)	64.3	47.2	−6.5 (−12.4, −0.7)	0.030	−23.6 (−32.4, −14.9)	<0.001	17.1 (9.8, 24.5)	<0.001
Tumor grade
I	40	92.5 (0.042)	88.4	89.2	−4.1 (−7.6, −0.6)	0.024	−3.3 (−6.3, −0.3)	0.032	−0.8 (−1.7, 0.1)	0.064
II	206	86.4 (0.024)	80.0	75.9	−6.4 (−8.1, −4.6)	<0.001	−10.5 (−12.9, −8.1)	<0.001	4.1 (2.9, 5.4)	<0.001
III	151	74.8 (0.035)	73.2	62.1	−1.7 (−3.8, 0.5)	0.123	−12.7 (−16.2, −9.2)	<0.001	11.1 (8.9, 13.2)	<0.001
Tumor histology
Ductal	375	82.4 (0.020)	77.9	71.4	−4.6 (−5.9, −3.2)	<0.001	−11.1 (−13.2, −8.9)	<0.001	6.5 (5.3, 7.7)	<0.001
Lobular	2	100	91.5	92.0	−8.5 (−27.6, 10.6)	0.111	−8.0 (−33.4, 17.4)	0.156	−0.5 (−6.9, 5.0)	0.500
Others	20	85.0 (0.080)	84.4	81.9	−0.6 (−7.0, 5.8)	0.847	−3.2 (−9.4, 3.1)	0.301	2.6 (0.3, 4.8)	0.026
Number of positive nodes
0	228	91.2 (0.019)	82.3	81.4	−8.9 (−10.4, −7.5)	<0.001	−9.8 (−11.2, −8.4)	<0.001	0.9 (0.3, 1.4)	0.001
1–3	98	74.5 (0.044)	76.7	69.1	2.2 (−0.5, 4.9)	0.107	−5.4 (−8.6, −2.1)	0.001	7.6 (6.0, 9.2)	<0.001
4–9	38	81.6 (0.063)	73.7	58.8	−7.9 (−11.3, −4.5)	<0.001	−22.8 (−29.7, −16.0)	<0.001	14.9 (10.3, 19.6)	<0.001
>10	33	48.5 (0.087)	60.3	30.6	11.8 (6.5, 17.1)	<0.001	−17.9 (−25.6, −10.2)	<0.001	29.7 (24.3, 35.1)	<0.001
Biological subtypes
Luminal and HER2 -	190	89.5 (0.022)	82.9	79.4	−6.6 (−8.3, −5.0)	<0.001	−10.1 (−12.6, −7.6)	<0.001	3.5 (1.9, 5.0)	<0.001
Luminal and HER2 +	49	81.6 (0.055)	80.0	74.3	−1.6 (−4.2, 0.9)	0.202	−7.3 (−11.5, −3.1)	0.001	5.6 (2.9, 8.4)	<0.001
HER 2 overexpression	61	75.4 (0.055)	67.4	55.6	−8.0 (−11.6, −4.4)	<0.001	−19.8 (−25.6, −13.9)	<0.001	11.8 (8.0, 15.5)	<0.001
Triple negative	65	70.8 (0.056)	73.4	62.3	2.6 (−0.9, 6.0)	0.141	−8.5 (−13.7, −3.4)	0.002	11.1 (8.5, 13.6)	<0.001
Pathological stage
I	129	96.1 (0.017)	86.1	85.1	−10.0 (−11.6, −8.5)	<0.001	−11.0 (−12.6, −9.5)	<0.001	1.0 (0.3, 1.7)	0.004
II	188	80.9 (0.029)	77.9	74.2	−3.0 (−4.7, −1.3)	0.001	−6.8 (−8.6, −4.9)	<0.001	3.8 (2.8, 4.8)	<0.001
III	80	65.0 (0.053)	66.3	45.8	1.3 (−1.9, 4.6)	0.418	−19.2 (−24.7, −13.8)	<0.001	20.6 (17.0, 24.2)	<0.001
Adjuvant chemotherapy
No	121	83.5 (0.034)	78.0	77.1	−5.5 (−8.5, −2.5)	<0.001	−6.4 (−9.9, −2.8)	0.001	0.9 (−0.4, 2.2)	0.180
1st generation	187	86.1 (0.025)	80.0	75.7	−6.1 (−7.9, −4.4)	<0.001	−10.4 (−12.6, −8.2)	<0.001	4.2 (3.3, 5.2)	<0.001
2nd generation	82	72.0 (0.050)	74.9	57.1	2.9 (0.5, 5.3)	0.019	−14.9 (−20.2, −9.5)	<0.001	17.8 (14.3, 21.2)	<0.001
3rd generation	7	100	75.6	56.9	−24.4 (−33.6, −15.3)	0.001	−43.1 (−65.3, −21.0)	0.003	18.7 (3.2, 34.3)	0.026
Adjuvant hormonal therapy
No	138	74.6 (0.037)	71.0	60.5	−3.7 (−6.1, −1.3)	0.003	−14.1 (−17.8, −10.5)	<0.001	10.5 (8.4, 12.5)	<0.001
Tamoxifen	108	83.3 (0.036)	85.3	80.6	2.0 (0.1, 3.8)	0.037	−2.7 (−5.9, 0.5)	0.099	4.7 (2.7, 6.6)	<0.001
Containing AI (only AI, switching)	138	89.9 (0.026)	78.8	75.0	−11.1 (−13.1, −9.1)	<0.001	−15.0 (−17.8, −12.1)	<0.001	3.8 (2.0, 5.7)	<0.001
Ovarian ablation plus tamoxifen	13	84.6 (0.100)	91.8	91.0	7.2 (5.2, 9.2)	<0.001	6.4 (3.3, 9.5)	0.001	0.8 (−1.0, 2.6)	0.370