Table 3.
Predictive models for disease severity and progression of patients with COVID-19 *.
| Total, No. (%) | Progression, No. (%) | Improvement/Stabilization, No. (%) | p | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (n = 293) | (n = 36) | (n = 257) | Value | AUC | 95% CI | Sensitivity | Specificity | |
| KCDC classification I | <0.001 | 0.817 | (0.740–0.895) | 83.30% | 67.70% | |||
| Class I | 180 (61.4%) | 6 (16.7%) | 174 (67.7%) | |||||
| Class II | 91 (31.1%) | 14 (38.9%) | 77 (30.0%) | |||||
| Class III | 22 (7.5%) | 16 (44.4%) | 6 (2.3%) | |||||
| KCDC classification II | <0.001 | 0.676 | (0.590–0.762) | 52.80% | 82.50% | |||
| Class I | 229 (78.2%) | 17 (47.2%) | 212 (82.5%) | |||||
| Class III | 64 (21.8%) | 19 (52.8%) | 45 (17.5%) | |||||
| CT score, median (IQR) | 0.0 (0.0–4.0) | 6.2 (1.0–14.5) | 0.0 (0.0–3.0) | <0.001 | 0.768 | (0.680–0.856) | 77.80% | 65.00% |
| MuLBSTA, median (IQR) | 0.0 (0.0–5.0) | 5.0 (5.0–7.0) | 0.0 (0.0–5.0) | <0.001 | 0.744 | (0.662–0.825) | 77.80% | 63.80% |
| CURB65 | <0.001 | 0.575 | (0.507–0.642) | 19.40% | 95.30% | |||
| 0 | 274 (93.5%) | 29 (80.6%) | 245 (95.3%) | |||||
| 1 | 18 (6.1%) | 6 (16.7%) | 12 (4.7%) | |||||
| 2 | 1 (0.3%) | 1 (2.8%) | 0 (0.0%) | |||||
| Pneumonia severity index | <0.001 | 0.659 | (0.568–0.750) | 50.00% | 79.00% | |||
| Class I | 221 (75.4%) | 18 (50.0%) | 203 (79.0%) | |||||
| Class II | 53 (18.1%) | 10 (27.8%) | 43 (16.7%) | |||||
| Class III | 17 (5.8%) | 6 (16.7%) | 11 (4.3%) | |||||
| Class IV | 2 (0.7%) | 2 (5.6%) | 0 (0.0%) | |||||
| Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index, median (IQR) | 0.0 (0.0–1.0) | 1.0 (0.5–4.0) | 0.0 (0.0–1.0) | <0.001 | 0.703 | (0.610–0.795) | 75.00% | 56.80% |
* AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; KCDC, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; CT, computed tomography, IQR, interquartile range; MuLBSTA, Multilobular infiltration, hypo-Lymphocytosis, Bacterial coinfection, Smoking history, hyper-Tension and Age; CURB65, Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure plus age ≥ 65 years.