Table 2.

Base case and one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses Table 2 reports the average discounted life expectancy, discounted cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the PA program with SOC compared to SOC alone for the base case analysis and all one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses.

Scenario	Life Expectancy	Cost	Δ Cost*	Δ QALY*	ICER ($/QALY)
Base Case
SOC alone (Ref**)	12.73	160,413
PA program + SOC	12.75	160,688	274.42	0.017	16,142
Sensitivity Analyses
Cost of PA program
2x cost	12.75	161,509	1095.08	0.017	64,416
3x cost	12.75	162,364	1950.22	0.018	108,346
4x cost	12.75	163,170	2756.57	0.017	162,151
5x cost	12.75	164,004	3590.68	0.017	211,216
PA-related background medical cost savings
Ref	12.73	157,937
50% reduced+	12.75	158,359	422.03	0.017	24,825
Ref	12.73	155,501
100% reduced	12.75	156,027	526.55	0.017	30,974
PA-related QoL increment
Ref	12.73	160,417
Upper bound QoL++	12.77	160,700	282.33	0.032	8,823
Ref	12.74	160,414
Lower bound QoL++	12.74	160,713	299.61	0.003	99,870
Eligibility for PA program
Ref	13.08	151,133
Full OA population, all PA levels	13.09	151,536	402.54	0.013	30,965

^*ΔCost and ΔQALY are relative to SOC treatment regimen with the same natural history characteristics.

^**For each pair of runs, the “Ref” comparator mirrors the cohort parameters varied but is run with only SOC.

⁺Reduced savings refers to the decrements to annual background medical costs associated with being active and insufficiently active. Under 100% reduced savings, background annual medical costs were the same for all subjects, regardless of PA level.

⁺⁺Lower and upper QoL bounds refer to the lower and upper 95% confidence interval values for the increments to applied annual QoL utility increment associated with being active and insufficiently active.