Table 3.
Comparisons of some key indicators of China's energy transitions under different peaking scenarios.
| Indicator | 2C2030 | 2C2025 | 2C2020 | 1.5C2030 | 1.5C2025 | 1.5C2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emissions (GtCO2) | 10.6/3.2/−1.6 | 9.6/3.3/−1.5 | 8.6/3.4/−1.3 | 10.6/−0.1/−1.7 | 8.9/0.7/−1.7 | 7.4/1.2/−1.7 |
| Non-fossil share (%) | 21/57/91 | 24/56/91 | 28/55/90 | 21/73/95 | 26/69/95 | 30/67/95 |
| Coal share (%) | 47/12/4 | 43/13/4 | 39/14/4 | 47/9/2 | 40/9/2 | 33/10/2 |
| Low-carbon electricity share (%) | 46/97/100 | 51/97/100 | 58/97/100 | 46/100/100 | 56/100/100 | 68/100/100 |
| End-use electrification (%) | 28/51/75 | 29/51/75 | 31/51/75 | 28/64/80 | 31/64/80 | 33/64/80 |
| Carbon prices (US$2010/tCO2) | 43/225/1373 | 61/217/1368 | 80/210/1367 | 43/689/2017 | 77/668/2017 | 100/648/2017 |
| Carbon neutrality | 2065 | 2070 | 2075 | 2050 | 2055 | 2060 |
| Conventional coal power plants phase-out | 2055 | 2055 | 2055 | 2045 | 2045 | 2045 |
| CCS/BECCS (GtCO2) | 182/61 | 181/51 | 180/42 | 198/91 | 195/80 | 192/68 |
| 2020– 2030/2020– 2100 mitigation costs (%) | 0.42/3.23 | 0.54/3.10 | 0.81/3.05 | 0.42/5.60 | 0.66/5.28 | 1.34/5.07 |
Note: For the first six indicators, the 2030/2050/2100 values are presented. ‘CCS/BECCS’ is for the years 2020–2100. ‘2020–2030/2020–2100 mitigation costs’ here correspond to a discount of 5%/yr.