TABLE 3.
Estimated banana production area lost due to Fusarium wilt over time (by country and region).
| Country | Banana production area*[‘000 ha] |
Banana production area lost due to Fusarium wilt [% of total]over time assuming 50% internal spread rate once in country (loss with 25% spread rate in parentheses if applicable) |
Banana production area lost [‘000 ha] in 25 years due to FW with 50% internal spread (25% spread) | ||||
| 2019 (year 5) | 2024 (year 10) | 2029 (year 15) | 2034 (year 20) | 2039 (year 25) | |||
| Africa | |||||||
| Burundi | 371.05 | 0 | 3 | 7 (6) | 12 (10) | 20 (15) | 75.1 (45.5) |
| Cameroon | 184.41 | 0 | 3 | 7 (6) | 12 (10) | 20 (15) | 37.6 (27.3) |
| Congo, D.R. | 391.62 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 (9) | 19 (15) | 74.4 (60.5) |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 411.19 | 0 | 2 | 5 (5) | 10 (8) | 17 (12) | 68.0 (49.1) |
| Ghana | 191.75 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 (8) | 16 (13) | 30.2 (24.5) |
| Kenya | 80.49 | 0 | 1 | 3 (3) | 7 (5) | 11 (8) | 8.8 (6.3) |
| Mozambique | 27.86 | 6 | 14 (12) | 25 (20) | 39 (29) | 55 (38) | 15.3 (10.7) |
| Nigeria | 455.55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 (1) | 3 (2) | 12.6 (10.1) |
| Rwanda | 343.64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 (3) | 6 (5) | 19.7 (15.8) |
| Tanzania | 537.68 | 0 | 4 | 10 (9) | 18 (15) | 29 (21) | 156.7 (115.6) |
| Uganda | 1866.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (1) | 3 (2) | 55.1 (44.2) |
| Subtotal | 4861.49 | 553.5 (418.7) | |||||
| Asia/Pacific | |||||||
| China | 398.19 | 8 | 19 (17) | 34 (28) | 52 (39) | 71 (51) | 283.4 (202.3) |
| India | 1858.28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 (4) | 9 (7) | 163.3 (131.8) |
| Indonesia | 320.03 | 4 | 10 (9) | 18 (14) | 29 (21) | 43 (29) | 137.6 (91.6) |
| Malaysia | 56.82 | 2 | 5 (4) | 9 (7) | 15 (11) | 23 (15) | 13.2 (8.5) |
| Myanmar | 65.43 | 0 | 8 | 18 (17) | 33 (27) | 50 (38) | 32.8 (24.7) |
| Pakistan | 31.98 | 8 | 19 (17) | 33 (27) | 51 (39) | 71 (50) | 22.6 (16.1) |
| Papua New Guinea | 45.18 | 0 | 4 | 10 (9) | 18 (14) | 29 (21) | 13.1 (9.6) |
| Philippines | 391.88 | 8 | 19 (17) | 34 (28) | 52 (39) | 71 (51) | 278.9 (199.1) |
| Thailand | 132.08 | 0 | 8 | 19 (17) | 33 (27) | 50 (38) | 66.6 (50.2) |
| Vietnam | 102.17 | 8 | 19 (17) | 34 (28) | 52 (39) | 71 (51) | 72.7 (51.9) |
| Subtotal | 3402.04 | 1084.1 (785.7) | |||||
| Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) | |||||||
| Brazil | 498.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (2) | 12.0 (10.8) |
| Colombia | 461.43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (1) | 3 (2) | 13.8 (11.1) |
| Costa Rica | 61.22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (2) | 4 (3) | 2.7 (2.1) |
| Ecuador | 266.88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (2) | 4 (3) | 10.2 (8.2) |
| Guatemala | 50.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 (4) | 4.1 (2.0) |
| Mexico | 86.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (2) | 2.0 (1.7) |
| Nicaragua | 14.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 (0.1) |
| Peru | 120.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 (2) | 2.5 (2.1) |
| Subtotal | 1560.13 | 47.3 (38.1) | |||||
| ALL | 9823.66 | 0.9 | 2.8 (2.6) | 6.3 (5.5) | 11.1 (8.8) | 17.1 (12.6) | 1684 (1242) |
Source: *Source for production area FAO STA (averages of 2010–2012 values) and FRuiTRoP (2012) Results of the “Foc Scale” as part of the Strategic Assessment of Banana Research Priorities (Scheerer et al., 2018a, b).