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. 2020 Jul 10;8:e9548. doi: 10.7717/peerj.9548

Figure 3. An overlay of modelled confidence intervals for the predicted cumulative number of diagnosed cases and the actual reported values shown for twenty selected countries.

Figure 3

The y-axes show the absolute number of diagnosed cases and due to different country populations are not unified. To facilitate comparisons a blue, dotted line was added as a reference indicating the 0.61% of the total population of a country. This value is the same as the tDR parameter used in our model reflecting the assumed ratio of detected to undetected cases. The confidence intervals obtained in our model will approach this value asymptotically. For most countries, observations agree well with model predictions. The observed discrepancies are most likely due to introduced NDIs which are not included in our model. The precautions were categorised and the dates of their introductions were marked on the plots with vertical lines, however, the assessment of their effectiveness is beyond the scope of this research. Analysed countries: (A) Argentina, (B) Australia, (C) Austria, (D) Bahrain, (E) Brazil, (F) Canada, (G) Chile, (H) France, (I) Germany, (J) Israel, (K) Italy, (L) Japan, (M) New Zealand, (N) Norway, (O) Peru, (P) South Korea, (Q) Spain, (R) Sweden, (S) United Kingdom, (T) USA.