Table 1. Analytically derived model parameters.

Parameter	Value	Description	Source/derivation
R0	4.4	Reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2	Literature-based: assumed on the basis of infectivity rates of other coronaviruses.
μ	7 days	Average recovery time since symptoms development	Literature-based
β	0.38261	Transmission rate	$\mathrm{\mu }÷R_0$
rβ	0.5	Reduction in transmission rate resulting from the undiagnosed development of severe COVID-19 symptoms	Literature-based
lp	5.6 days	Average latency period	Literature-based
lnip	1.1 days	Average latent non-infectious period	Literature-based: assumed on the basis of non-infectious period of Influenza A/H1N1
pip	4.5 days	Average presymptomatic infectious period	$lp-lnip$
niε	0.9 (09)	Probability of transition from lnip to pip state	$1÷lnip$
iε	0.2 (2)	Probability of transition from presymptomatic to symptomatic state	$1÷\left(lp-lnip\right)$
pS	0.01	Probability of developing severe COVID-19 symptoms	Literature-data: The most often reported ratio of severe to mild symptoms
pDS	0.6	Probability of being diagnosed when expressing severe COVID-19 symptoms	Assumed, taking into account that: 1. In elderly patients, COVID may be easily misdiagnosed, 2. Most of the countries in the world do not have sufficiently efficient healthcare systems
tDR	0.0061	Rate of diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals	Value representing the smallest possible detectability $>pS\ast pDS$
pDM	0.00 (01)	Probability of being diagnosed when presenting mild or none COVID-19 symptoms	$\left(tDR-pS\ast pDS\right)÷\left(1-pS\right)$