Table 1.
COVID-19 scenarios
| Assumptions* | |
|---|---|
| No action | No substantial interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Mitigation | Interventions capable of reducing the COVID-19 Rt by 45% are used for 6 months (eg, physical distancing rules, no mass public gatherings, and home-working when possible) |
| Suppression–lift | Interventions capable of reducing the COVID-19 Rt by 75% are implemented for 2 months, then lifted (eg, a full lockdown intervention, including closure of non-essential businesses and schools, and no non-essential travel or time spent outside of the home) |
| Suppression | Interventions capable of reducing Rt by 75% are implemented for 1 year (implicitly assuming that pharmacological interventions become available by that time and that therefore there is no large COVID-19 pandemic in the next 5 years); this scenario is subdivided into well managed suppression and unmanaged suppression, which are distinguished by their effects on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria |
Rt=effective reproduction number.
*
For all scenarios, we also assume that the COVID-19 Rt is reduced by 20% irrespective of any intervention due to a spontaneous reduction in social contacts.