Skip to main content
. 2020 Jul 13;180(9):1–12. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.2790

Table 4. Risk of Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality Associated With Substitution of 3% Dietary Energy Intake From Plant Protein for Various Animal Protein Sources Among 237 036 Men and 179 068 Womena.

Animal protein source Men Women
HR (95% CI)b P value HR (95% CI)b P value
Total animal protein
Overall 0.90 (0.88-0.93) <.001c 0.90 (0.87-0.93) <.001c
Cancer 0.97 (0.92-1.02) .19 0.93 (0.88-0.99) .02
CVD 0.89 (0.85-0.94) <.001c 0.88 (0.82-0.94) <.001c
Heart disease 0.91 (0.86-0.96) <.001c 0.90 (0.84-0.98) .01
Stroke 0.78 (0.68-0.90) <.001c 0.81 (0.70-0.94) .007
Respiratory disease 0.92 (0.82-1.03) .14 0.92 (0.82-1.04) .18
Infection 0.99 (0.85-1.14) .86 0.81 (0.68-0.97) .02
Injury and accident 0.82 (0.71-0.95) .008 0.89 (0.72-1.11) .30
Other causes combined 0.83 (0.78-0.88) <.001c 0.90 (0.83-0.97) .005
Red meat protein
Overall 0.87 (0.85-0.90) <.001c 0.85 (0.81-0.88) <.001c
Cancer 0.93 (0.88-0.98) .004 0.89 (0.83-0.95) <.001c
CVD 0.88 (0.83-0.93) <.001c 0.82 (0.76-0.89) <.001c
Heart disease 0.89 (0.84-0.94) <.001c 0.84 (0.77-0.92) <.001c
Stroke 0.79 (0.68-0.91) .001c 0.75 (0.63-0.89) <.001c
Respiratory disease 0.83 (0.74-0.94) .003 0.80 (0.70-0.91) .001c
Infection 0.94 (0.81-1.10) .47 0.75 (0.62-0.92) .006
Injury and accident 0.80 (0.69-0.94) .005 0.90 (0.71-1.16) .42
Other causes combined 0.80 (0.75-0.86) <.001c 0.85 (0.78-0.92) <.001c
White meat protein
Overall 0.98 (0.94-1.01) .11 0.95 (0.91-0.98) .005
Cancer 1.02 (0.97-1.08) .40 0.93 (0.87-0.99) .02
CVD 0.95 (0.90-1.01) .07 0.94 (0.87-1.02) .12
Heart disease 0.97 (0.91-1.03) .27 0.97 (0.89-1.05) .41
Stroke 0.83 (0.71-0.96) .01 0.90 (0.76-1.06) .20
Respiratory disease 1.17 (1.03-1.33) .02 1.06 (0.93-1.21) .40
Infection 1.06 (0.90-1.25) .52 0.88 (0.72-1.07) .20
Injury and accident 0.91 (0.77-1.07) .23 0.99 (0.78-1.26) .96
Other causes combined 0.90 (0.84-0.97) .004 0.90 (0.84-0.97) .004
Dairy protein
Overall 0.92 (0.89-0.95) <.001c 0.92 (0.89-0.95) <.001c
Cancer 1.01 (0.96-1.06) .73 0.97 (0.91-1.03) .31
CVD 0.89 (0.84-0.94) <.001c 0.88 (0.82-0.95) <.001c
Heart disease 0.91 (0.86-0.97) .003c 0.92 (0.84-0.99) .03
Stroke 0.77 (0.66-0.89) <.001c 0.80 (0.69-0.94) .006
Respiratory disease 0.94 (0.83-1.06) .31 0.97 (0.85-1.10) .60
Infection 0.98 (0.84-1.15) .79 0.80 (0.67-0.97) .02
Injury and accident 0.83 (0.71-0.98) .02 0.88 (0.70-1.10) .25
Other causes combined 0.83 (0.78-0.89) <.001c 0.90 (0.83-0.97) .008
Egg protein
Overall 0.76 (0.72-0.80) <.001c 0.79 (0.73-0.85) <.001c
Cancer 0.85 (0.78-0.93) <.001c 0.83 (0.73-0.93) .002c
CVD 0.74 (0.67-0.82) <.001c 0.72 (0.63-0.83) <.001c
Heart disease 0.76 (0.69-0.85) <.001c 0.72 (0.62-0.85) <.001c
Stroke 0.67 (0.52-0.88) .003 0.75 (0.55-1.03) .08
Respiratory disease 0.61 (0.50-0.74) <.001c 0.66 (0.53-0.83) <.001c
Infection 0.94 (0.71-1.25) .66 0.80 (0.55-1.17) .25
Injury and accident 0.71 (0.53-0.94) .02 0.67 (0.43-1.05) .08
Other causes combined 0.71 (0.63-0.80) <.001c 0.92 (0.78-1.08) .28

Abbreviations: CVD, cardiovascular disease; HR, hazard ratio.

a

Plant, animal and total protein were modeled as percentages of energy, using energy from the specific protein divided by total energy intake, and the leave-1-out model was used as the substitution approach: to evaluate the substitution of 3% energy from plant protein for an individual component of animal protein (red meat protein, white meat protein, dairy protein and egg protein), energy from plant protein, total protein, and other 3 components of animal protein were simultaneously included in the model. The HRs represent the relative risk of overall mortality with 3% energy from plant protein substituted for the excluded animal protein energy.

b

Adjusted as indicated in note c of Table 2, and for women, the risk estimates were additionally adjusted for postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (yes vs no).

c

Achieved Bonferroni-corrected threshold (.05/18 = .0028).