Table 3.
Promoting First Relationships Benefit-Cost Analysis Results Under Different Benefits Assumptions
| Scenario 1: System Benefits Only |
Scenarios 2 & 3: System and Victim Benefits |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PFR Effect Sizes a, b | ES Time 1, Time 2 | ES Time 1, Time 2 | ES Time 1, Time 2 | ES Time 1, Time 2 | ES Time 1, Time 2 | ES Time 1, Time 2 |
| OOHP | −0.460, −0.560 | −0.460, −0.560 | −0.460, −0.560 | −0.460, −0.560 | −0.460, −0.560 | −0.460, −0.560 |
| CAN | 0.000, 0.000 | −0.092, −0.112 | −0.184, −0.224 | −0.276, −0.336 | −0.368, −0.448 | −0.460, −0.560 |
| % of OOHP | 0% | 20% | 40% | 60% | 80% | 100% |
| Costs, all scenarios c | $1,756 | $1,759 | $1,757 | $1,755 | $1,760 | $1,758 |
| (credible interval) d | ($1,617, $1,893) | ($1,619, $1,893) | ($1,623, $1,895) | ($1,621, $1,891) | ($1,627, $1,893) | ($1,623, $1,893) |
| Scenarios 1 & 2 | ||||||
| Benefits c | $1,756 | $7,273 | $13,321 | $18,692 | $23,869 | $27,320 |
| (credible interval) | (−$1,529, $5,149) | (−$30,975, $52,219) | (−$20,032, $56,591) | (−$13,034, $74,540) | (−$9,058, $76,954) | (−$6,525, $85,897) |
| NPV c | $1 | $5,514 | $11,564 | $16,937 | $22,108 | $25,562 |
| (credible interval) | (−$3,346, $3,388) | (−$32,739, $50,516) | (−$21,685, $54,979) | (−$14,817, $72,842) | (−$10,853, $75,211) | (−$8,374, $84,154) |
| BCR | $1.00 | $4.13 | $7.58 | $10.65 | $13.56 | $15.54 |
| Benefits by beneficiary | ||||||
| Participant | $63 | $3,343 | $6,834 | $9,881 | $12,814 | $14,778 |
| Taxpayer | $1,717 | $3,439 | $5,355 | $7,101 | $8,758 | $9,846 |
| Other | −$24 | $490 | $1,132 | $1,711 | $2,297 | $2,695 |
| Benefits by source | ||||||
| OOHP system | $2,343 | $2,308 | $2,311 | $2,332 | $2,372 | $2,305 |
| CAN system | $296 | $246 | $495 | $735 | $959 | $1,134 |
| Earnings e | $0 | $4,832 | $9,885 | $14,291 | $18,526 | $21,377 |
| Health care | $0 | $190 | $409 | $597 | $801 | $902 |
| Education | $0 | $128 | $260 | $385 | $503 | $595 |
| Crime | $0 | $424 | $837 | $1,218 | $1,603 | $1,894 |
| Property loss | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Deadweight loss | −$883 | −$856 | −$876 | −$866 | −$896 | −$890 |
| Scenario 3 | ||||||
| Quality-of-life benefits e | n/a | $1,860 | $3,287 | $4,678 | $5,265 | $6,149 |
| NPV c | $7,373 | $15,204 | $21,994 | $27,351 | $31,750 | |
| (credible interval) | (−$33,909, $55,819) | (−$20,385, $76,023) | (−$13,034, $74,540) | (−$10,166, $85,431) | (−$7,003, $94,038) | |
| BCR | $5.19 | $9.65 | $13.48 | $16.57 | $19.05 | |
a
PFR=Promoting First Relationships. ES=Effect Size. OOHP=Out-of-home placements. CAN=Child abuse and neglect. NPV=Net present value. BCR=Benefit cost ratio.
b
OOHP standard errors were .404 and .287 for 5 months (time 1) and 15 months (time 2) post PFR, respectively, and were held constant regardless of the CAN ES.
c
Costs, benefits, and NPV are expected values from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations (2014 USD).
d
95% credible intervals reflect the 25th lowest and 25th highest values from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
e
Earnings are net of investment in higher education. Quality-of-life benefits accrue to participants.