Table 2.
Impact of local homicide rate on birth rate at the municipality-month level from January, 2003 to June, 2009
| Birth Rate of Women Aged 14–49 (per 1,000) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homicide Rate | All (1) |
≥9 Years of Education (2) |
BMI >25 (overweight) (3) |
BMI >30 (obese) (4) |
| t – 15 months | 0.34 | 1.59 | −0.86** | −1.18† |
| (0.83) | (2.28) | (0.30) | (0.61) | |
| t – 14 months | 0.05 | −0.75* | −0.49 | −0.08 |
| (0.31) | (0.38) | (0.31) | (0.75) | |
| t – 13 months | 0.10 | −0.14 | −0.63* | −1.09† |
| (0.31) | (0.43) | (0.29) | (0.63) | |
| t – 12 months | −0.42 | −1.22** | −0.56† | −1.75** |
| (0.32) | (0.40) | (0.31) | (0.61) | |
| t – 11 months | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.76* | −1.28* |
| (0.28) | (0.41) | (0.30) | (0.59) | |
| t – 10 months | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| (0.38) | (0.50) | (0.47) | (0.90) | |
| t – 9 months | −0.04 | 0.04 | −0.43 | −0.05 |
| (0.30) | (0.44) | (0.32) | (0.69) | |
| t – 8 months | 0.19 | 0.05 | −0.54† | −1.04† |
| (0.34) | (0.48) | (0.30) | (0.53) | |
| t – 7 months | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.61 | −0.09 |
| (0.38) | (0.46) | (0.69) | (0.75) | |
| t – 6 months | −0.33 | −0.10 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| (0.29) | (0.48) | (0.47) | (0.80) | |
| t – 5 months | −0.31 | −0.95* | 0.11 | −0.79 |
| (0.28) | (0.37) | (0.44) | (0.60) | |
| t – 4 months | −0.21 | −0.83* | 0.47 | 0.86 |
| (0.33) | (0.34) | (0.75) | (1.26) | |
| t – 3 months | −0.29 | −0.75* | 0.51 | 2.18 |
| (0.29) | (0.37) | (0.77) | (2.81) | |
| t – 2 months | 0.46 | 1.67 | −0.18 | −1.45* |
| (0.48) | (1.06) | (0.55) | (0.60) | |
| t – 1 month | 0.28 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.50 |
| (0.41) | (0.47) | (0.49) | (0.85) | |
| Mean Monthly Birth Rate (1,000) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Municipality-Months | 10,452 | 10,451 | 10,448 | 10,448 |
Notes: Homicide rates are per 10,000. Robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. Models include year, month, municipality, and state interacted with year fixed effects.
†
p < .10
*
p < .05
**
p < .10