Figure 2.

Model projections for primary hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence and among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–diagnosed men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin. Lines represent mean model projections with various levels of HCV treatment and behavior change; diamonds, epidemiological data; whiskers, 95% confidence intervals. The scenarios were defined as follows: Scenario 1) status quo (80% of newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 6 months after diagnosis); Scenario 2) beginning in 2018, all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 6 months, along with 25% per year of previously diagnosed and untreated HCV infections; Scenario 3) as in scenario 2 but with all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months; Scenario 4) as in scenario 3, with 20% HCV risk reduction in HIV-diagnosed MSM; Scenario 5) as in scenario 3, but with 40% HCV risk reduction in HIV-diagnosed MSM; and Scenario 6) as in scenario 5, along with 20% reduction in background incidence from individuals outside the HIV-diagnosed MSM population.