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. 2020 Jul 28;77(3):929–941. doi: 10.1111/biom.13325

TABLE 1.

Estimation of incubation distribution in simulation

(a) Gamma incubation fI(t;θ)=βαtα1eβt/Γ(α); α=5, β=0.8
Proposed method Qin's method IC method
π m α^ (SE) β^ (SE) π^ (SE) α^ (SE) β^ (SE) π^ (SE) α^ (SE) β^ (SE) π^ (SE)
0 600 4.43 0.76 0.11 4.47 0.76 0.10 9.79 1.07 0
    (1.22) (0.14) (0.14) (1.13) (0.13) (0.12) (1.24) (0.14) (0)
  1200 4.47 0.76 0.09 4.49 0.76 0.08 9.72 1.06 0
    (0.94) (0.10) (0.11) (0.89) (0.10) (0.09) (0.88) (0.10) (0)
  1800 4.55 0.77 0.07 4.54 0.76 0.07 9.70 1.06 0
    (0.77) (0.08) (0.09) (0.75) (0.08) (0.08) (0.82) (0.08) (0)
0.2 600 5.36 0.83 0.20 5.37 0.83 0.19 9.61 1.00 0
    (1.64) (0.17) (0.15) (1.62) (0.17) (0.14) (1.21) (0.13) (0)
  1200 5.33 0.83 0.19 5.33 0.82 0.18 9.51 0.99 0
    (1.28) (0.13) (0.11) (1.29) (0.13) (0.11) (0.83) (0.09) (0)
  1800 5.25 0.82 0.19 5.25 0.82 0.19 9.49 0.99 0
    (1.08) (0.10) (0.10) (1.10) (0.11) (0.10) (0.67) (0.07) (0)
(b) Weibull incubation fI(t;θ)=k(t/λ)k1exp{(t/λ)k}/λ; k=2, λ=8
Proposed method Qin's method IC method
π m k^ (SE) λ^ (SE) π^ (SE) k^ (SE) λ^ (SE) π^ (SE) k^ (SE) λ^ (SE) π^ (SE)
0 600 1.92 7.49 0.11 2.00 7.89 0.02 3.49 11.99 0
    (0.24) (0.86) (0.17) (0.19) (0.47) (0.05) (0.24) (0.30) (0)
  1200 1.93 7.57 0.09 2.00 7.95 0.01 3.57 12.00 0
    (0.19) (0.72) (0.14) (0.13) (0.34) (0.03) (0.17) (0.20) (0)
  1800 1.93 7.62 0.07 2.00 7.97 0.01 3.56 12.00 0
    (0.16) (0.64) (0.12) (0.11) (0.27) (0.02) (0.14) (0.17) (0)
0.2 600 2.07 8.20 0.19 2.18 8.70 0.10 3.48 12.42 0
    (0.29) (1.05) (0.19) (0.22) (0.71) (0.11) (0.21) (0.29) (0)
  1200 2.04 8.17 0.19 2.17 8.73 0.09 3.46 12.44 0
    (0.23) (0.88) (0.15) (0.16) (0.59) (0.09) (0.15) (0.20) (0)
  1800 2.03 8.14 0.19 2.17 8.73 0.09 3.45 12.43 0
    (0.20) (0.80) (0.14) (0.14) (0.53) (0.08) (0.12) (0.16) (0)
(c) Log‐normal incubation fI(t;θ)=exp{(logtμ)2/2σ2}/2πσ2t; μ=1.8, σ=0.4
Proposed method Qin's method IC method
π m μ^ (SE) σ^ (SE) π^ (SE) μ^ (SE) σ^ (SE) π^ (SE) μ^ (SE) σ^ (SE) π^ (SE)
0 600 1.73 0.42 0.08 1.74 0.42 0.07 2.18 0.33 0
    (0.10) (0.04) (0.10) (0.10) (0.04) (0.09) (0.02) (0.02) (0)
  1200 1.74 0.42 0.06 1.75 0.42 0.05 2.18 0.33 0
    (0.08) (0.03) (0.07) (0.07) (0.03) (0.07) (0.02) (0.02) (0)
  1800 1.75 0.42 0.05 1.76 0.41 0.04 2.18 0.33 0
    (0.07) (0.03) (0.06) (0.06) (0.03) (0.06) (0.01) (0.01) (0)
0.2 600 1.82 0.39 0.18 1.83 0.39 0.18 2.22 0.33 0
    (0.11) (0.04) (0.11) (0.10) (0.04) (0.11) (0.02) (0.02) (0)
  1200 1.82 0.39 0.19 1.82 0.39 0.18 2.22 0.33 0
    (0.08) (0.03) (0.08) (0.08) (0.03) (0.08) (0.02) (0.01) (0)
  1800 1.81 0.40 0.19 1.81 0.40 0.19 2.22 0.33 0
    (0.06) (0.03) (0.07) (0.06) (0.03) (0.07) (0.01) (0.01) (0)

Note. Estimates and standard error. The first panel is our proposed method: mixture distribution with censoring. The second panel is Qin's method. The third panel is the IC method.

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