TABLE 2.
Estimation of incubation distribution for COVID‐19 data
| (a) Gamma incubation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| α | β | π | Mean | 0.25 Q | Median | 0.75 Q | 0.90 Q | 0.99 Q | GoF | |
| 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | loglik | (P‐value) |
| 4.97 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 9.10 | 6.13 | 8.50 | 11.43 | 14.57 | 21.17 | −3260 | 13.46 |
| [3.75; | [0.45; | [0.00; | [7.86; | [4.97; | [7.22; | [10.02; | [13.22; | [19.63; | (0.41) | |
| 6.25] | 0.66] | 0.15] | 9.66] | 6.80] | 9.15] | 11.98] | 15.10] | 22.07] | ||
| (b) Weibull incubation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| k | λ | π | Mean | 0.25 Q | Median | 0.75 Q | 0.90 Q | 0.99 Q | GoF | |
| 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | (P‐value) | |
| 2.04 | 9.70 | 0.00 | 8.60 | 5.26 | 8.10 | 11.39 | 14.61 | 20.53 | −3260 | 14.09 |
| [1.72; | [7.88; | [0.00; | [7.03; | [3.84; | [6.40; | [9.52; | [12.69; | [18.58; | (0.37) | |
| 2.26] | 10.25] | 0.27] | 9.08] | 5.86] | 8.67] | 11.91] | 15.11] | 21.38] | ||
| (c) Log‐normal incubation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| μ | σ | π | Mean | 0.25 Q | Median | 0.75 Q | 0.90 Q | 0.99 Q | GoF | |
| 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | loglik | (P‐value) |
| 2.17 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 9.44 | 6.70 | 8.74 | 11.39 | 14.46 | 21.82 | −3263 | 15.44 |
| [2.08; | [0.35; | [0.00; | [8.81; | [6.03; | [8.02; | [10.76; | [13.78; | [20.59; | (0.28) | |
| 2.24] | 0.43] | 0.00] | 9.99] | 7.33] | 9.36] | 11.94] | 15.02] | 22.81] | ||
Note. Model parameter estimates, incubation quantiles (with 95% CIs), log‐likelihood, goodness‐of‐fit statistic in the distribution estimation of incubation period.