Table 2.

Unstandardized estimates (posterior means), 95% credibility intervals (CIs), and effect sizes (f²) from the conditional multilevel model

			Between-person predictors of random effects
	Estimated mean		Externalizing Factor	f2		Internalizing Factor	f2
PA mean intensity (mean; μPA)	1.85 [1.66, 2.05]		−0.04 [−0.42, 0.34]	.01		−0.05 [−0.29, 0.18]	.01
NA mean intensity (mean; μNA)	1.25 [1.18, 1.33]		−0.03 [−0.18, 0.12]	.01		0.17 [0.07, 0.27]	.10
PA inertia (autoregression; ΦPP)	0.47 [0.38, 0.55]		−0.24 [−0.40, −0.08]	.08		0.05 [−0.06, 0.14]	.01
NA inertia (autoregression; ΦNN)	0.45 [0.35, 0.54]		−0.04 [−0.23, 0.14]	.01		0.06 [−0.06, 0.17]	.02
NAt-1→PAt augmentation (cross-lag; ΦPN)	−0.18 [−0.30, −0.08]		−0.02 [−0.21, 0.17]	.01		0.01 [−0.10, 0.12]	.01
PAt-1→NAt augmentation (cross-lag; ΦNP)	−0.04 [−0.06, −0.02]		0.002 [−0.04, 0.04]	.01		−0.02 [−0.04, 0.01]	.04
PA variability (innovation variance; log(πPA))	−1.84 [−2.19, −1.48]		0.71 [0.01, 1.42]	.04		−0.47 [−0.91, −0.04]	.04
NA variability (innovation variance; log(πNA))	−4.22 [−4.74, −3.72]		0.06 [−0.93, 1.06]	.01		0.97 [0.37, 1.58]	.08
Polarization (negative covariance of innovations; log(ψ))	−3.91 [−4.36, −3.46]		0.66 [−0.25, 1.56]	.03		0.18 [−0.40, 0.76]	.02

Note. N = 156 (17,465 observations). CIs are presented in brackets. Bold type indicates effects that are statistically significant based on CIs that do not include zero. Effect sizes (f²) were calculated for effects of internalizing and externalizing based on model R² values from models with and without each of these variables (see Supplemental Materials for all conditional model results and R² values). Effects of covariates (i.e., time at the within-person level; race/ethnicity and low SES at the between-person level) and covariances among predictors and dependent variables (random effects) were also estimated (see Supplemental Materials for these parameter estimates and fully standardized results for all conditional models).