Figure 1.

A: The ROC curve for the RSF-based model for predicting incident HF at year 5 in the derivation data set (ACCORD). AUC, area under the curve. B: Calibration of the RSF-based model in the derivation data set. Predicted vs. observed 5-year incidence of HF based on deciles of predicted risk. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic χ² = 9.63, P = 0.29). C: The ROC curve for the RSF-based model for predicting incident HF at year 5 in the external validation data set (ALLHAT). D: Calibration of the RSF-based model in the externally validated data set. Predicted vs. observed 5-year incidence of HF based on deciles of predicted risk. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic χ² = 11.05, P = 0.20). Q1 to Q10 refer to deciles of WATCH-DM risk score.