Table 2.
Annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) in pancreatic cancer incidence rates over time among the US population older than 35 years, overall and by age, sex, and race
| Population | Joinpoint segment |
Joinpoint segment |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year start | Year end | APC (95% CI), % | Year start | Year end | AAPC (95% CI), % | P | |
| Overall US population | 2001 | 2008 | 1.23 (0.92 to 1.54) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.63 (0.46 to 0.80) | |
| 2008 | 2016 | 0.11 (-0.13 to 0.35) | |||||
| Age-group at diagnosis, y | |||||||
| 35–39 | 2001 | 2013 | –0.58 (–1.62 to 0.47) | 2001 | 2016 | 1.58 (–0.00 to 3.18) | .018 |
| 2013 | 2016 | 10.68 (2.46 to 19.55) | |||||
| 40–44 | 2001 | 2007 | 1.70 (–0.01 to 3.44) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.66 (–0.66 to 1.93) | <.001 |
| 2007 | 2013 | –1.78 (–3.89 to 0.37) | |||||
| 2013 | 2016 | 3.59 (–1.39 to 8.81) | |||||
| 45–49 | 2001 | 2006 | 1.68 (0.81 to 2.56) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.44 (0.13 to 0.76) | .001 |
| 2006 | 2016 | –0.17 (–0.48 to 0.14) | |||||
| 50–54 | 2001 | 2016 | 0.72 (0.45 to 0.99) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.72 (0.45 to 0.99) | .757 |
| 55–59 | 2001 | 2016 | 0.88 (0.63 to 1.13) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.88 (0.63 to 1.13) | .329 |
| 60–64 | 2001 | 2016 | 0.82 (0.56 to 1.07) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.82 (0.56 to 1.07) | .638 |
| 64–69 | 2001 | 2016 | 0.76 (0.59 to 0.93) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.76 (0.59 to 0.93) | a |
| 70–74 | 2001 | 2008 | 1.13 (0.66 to 1.60) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.64 (0.39 to 0.89) | .011 |
| 2008 | 2016 | 0.21 (–0.12 to 0.55) | |||||
| 75–79 | 2001 | 2009 | 1.30 (0.91 to 1.69) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.72 (0.46 to 0.98) | .155 |
| 2009 | 2016 | 0.06 (–0.39 to 0.50) | |||||
| 80–84 | 2001 | 2006 | 2.35 (0.77 to 3.96) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.83 (0.28 to 1.38) | .126 |
| 2006 | 2016 | 0.08 (–0.42 to 0.58) | |||||
| ≥85 | 2001 | 2008 | 1.56 (0.50 to 2.63) | 2001 | 2016 | –0.01 (–0.57 to 0.55) | .002 |
| 2008 | 2016 | –1.37 (–2.10 to –0.63) | |||||
| Sex | |||||||
| Men | 2001 | 2008 | 1.14 (0.71 to 1.58) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.61 (0.42 to 0.81) | a |
| 2008 | 2016 | 0.26 (0.04 to 0.48) | |||||
| Women | 2001 | 2008 | 1.35 (1.00 to 1.70) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.63 (0.44 to 0.82) | .250 |
| 2008 | 2016 | 0.01 (–0.26 to 0.27) | |||||
| Race/Ethnics | |||||||
| Non–Hispanic White | 2001 | 2007 | 1.47 (1.00 to 1.95) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.80 (0.59 to 1.01) | a |
| 2007 | 2016 | 0.36 (0.12 to 0.60) | |||||
| Non–Hispanic Black | 2001 | 2008 | 1.19 (0.46 to 1.93) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.34 (–0.04 to 0.73) | <.001 |
| 2008 | 2016 | –0.40 (–0.89 to 0.10) | |||||
| Hispanic | 2001 | 2016 | 0.07 (–0.22 to 0.36) | 2001 | 2016 | 0.07 (–0.22 to 0.36) | .003 |
a
Reference group for comparisons of incidence trends. Age groups were compared with age group 64–69 years. Non–Hispanic blacks and Hispanics were compared with non–Hispanic whites. P value < .05 on the parallelism test, indicating that the trends (slopes) between this reference groups were statistically significantly different. CI = confidence interval.