Table 3. Performance of the ARMA forecast models after 2 and 30 weeks in South Korea from the 41st week of 2014 to the 52nd week of 2019.
ARMAX | Forecast week | Mean AIC | R2 | RMSE | Input variables | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous seasonal ILI | Total GT | Average vapor pressure | Total INF in Argentina | |||||
Reference | 2 weeks | 917.5 | 0.623 | 9.4 | O | |||
30 weeks | 743.7 | 0.247 | 13.3 | O | ||||
Forecast | 2 weeks | 849.1 | 0.789 | 7.1 | O | O | ||
30 weeks | 696.0 | 0.621 | 9.5 | O | O | O |
AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; R2, Coefficient of determination; RMSE, Root-mean-square error; ARMAX, Auto Regressive Moving Average including exogenous variables; ILI, Influenza-like illness; GT, Google Trends; INF, Influenza