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. 2020 Jul 16;15(7):e0233855. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233855

Table 3. Performance of the ARMA forecast models after 2 and 30 weeks in South Korea from the 41st week of 2014 to the 52nd week of 2019.

ARMAX Forecast week Mean AIC R2 RMSE Input variables
Previous seasonal ILI Total GT Average vapor pressure Total INF in Argentina
Reference 2 weeks 917.5 0.623 9.4 O
30 weeks 743.7 0.247 13.3 O
Forecast 2 weeks 849.1 0.789 7.1 O O
30 weeks 696.0 0.621 9.5 O O O

AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; R2, Coefficient of determination; RMSE, Root-mean-square error; ARMAX, Auto Regressive Moving Average including exogenous variables; ILI, Influenza-like illness; GT, Google Trends; INF, Influenza