Table 4. Evaluation criteria results for the final models after 2 and 30 weeks in South Korea using the training set for three years.
| Models | AIC | Ljung-Box (P-value) | Jarque-Bera (P-value) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 weeks | ARMAX (1,0) | 911.4 | 45.3 (<0.01) | 460.3 (<0.01) |
| ARMAX (4,1) | 837.2 | 10.9 (0.95) | 1831.7 (<0.01) | |
| ARIMAX (4,1,1) | 642.3 | 70.0 (<0.01) | 35.1 (<0.01) | |
| SARIMAX (4,1,1) (1,0,0)52* | 377.7 | 98.8 (<0.01) | 1.9 (0.38) | |
| SARIMAX (4,2,1) (1,0,0)52 | 378.9 | 69.1 (<0.01) | 0.6 (0.74) | |
| 30 weeks | ARMAX (1,0) | 738.8 | 98.8 (<0.01) | 164.4 (<0.01) |
| ARMAX (4,1) | 668.2 | 41.4 (0.80) | 123.3 (<0.01) | |
| ARIMAX (4,1,1) | 492.4 | 84.0 (<0.01) | 17.7 (<0.01) | |
| SARIMAX (4,1,1) (1,0,0)52* | 291.5 | 73.4 (<0.01) | 13.6 (<0.01) | |
| SARIMAX (4,2,1) (1,0,0)52 | 305.6 | 104.8 (<0.01) | 12.4 (<0.01) | |
AIC, Akaike Information Criterion; ARMAX, Auto Regressive Moving Average including exogenous variables; ARIMAX, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average including exogenous variables; SARIMAX, Seasonal ARIMAX.
*We selected a final model with the smallest AIC value.