TABLE 2.

Health State Transition Probabilities

Event (Strategy)	Probability	SD	Time	Source	Distribution
Active disease to medical remission (early anti-TNF-α)	0.553	0.003	0 to 6 mo	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
	0.396	0.004	6 to 12 mo
	0.500	0.005	12 to 18 mo
	0.400	0.006	18 to 24 mo
	0.355	0.007	24 to 30 mo
	0.529	0.007	30 to 36 mo
Active disease to medical remission (standard care)	0.515	0.001	0 to 6 mo	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
	0.452	0.002	6 to 12 mo
	0.495	0.002	12 to 18 mo
	0.526	0.003	18 to 24 mo
	0.467	0.003	24 to 30 mo
	0.507	0.004	30 to 36 mo
Continued medical remission (early anti-TNF-α)	0.794	0.002	6 to 12 mo	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
	0.747	0.002	12 to 18 mo
	0.899	0.001	18 to 24 mo
	0.828	0.002	24 to 30 mo
	0.843	0.002	30 to 36 mo
Continued medical remission (standard care)	0.680	0.002	6 to 12 mo	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
	0.644	0.002	12 to 18 mo
	0.781	0.001	18 to 24 mo
	0.835	0.001	24 to 30 mo
	0.850	0.001	30 to 36 mo
Active disease to active disease requiring surgery or hospitalization (early anti-TNF-α)	0.046	0.000	3 y	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
Active disease to active disease requiring surgery or hospitalization (standard care)	0.030	0.000	3 y	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
Surgical remission to active disease (early anti-TNF-α)	0.001	0.001	3 y	Blackburn, et al., 201419	Beta
Surgical remission to active disease (standard care)	0.000	0.000	3 y	Kugathasan et al., 200818	Beta
Serious infection on CS	0.070	0.014	1 y	Dulai et al., 201424	Beta
Serious infection on IM	0.033	0.007	1 y
Serious infection on anti-TNF-α	0.032	0.006	1 y
Lymphoma on anti-TNF-α	0.00021	0.00004	1 y
Lymphoma on IM	0.00045	0.00009	1 y
Antibody reaction on infliximab	0.00036	0.001	1 wk	Hyams et al., 201125	Beta
Surgical complications	0.058	0.002	1 wk	Leonor et al., 200726	Beta
Death from lymphoma (female)	0.000053	0.00001	1 y	Canadian Cancer Society, 201727	Beta
Death from lymphoma (male)	0.000084	0.00002	1 y