Lockdown scenario 1: Withdraw the existing partial lockdown (LS1) |
People will start moving towards regular life |
LS1S1 |
9.4 |
8.2 |
6.9 |
28.3 |
47.2 |
3.96 |
1.314 |
1.726 |
− 1.156 |
0.107 |
0.28 |
Formal and informal economical activities will be started |
LS1S2 |
3.1 |
11.3 |
10.1 |
32.7 |
42.8 |
4.01 |
1.128 |
1.272 |
− 1.031 |
0.122 |
0.35 |
Massive movement and a mass gathering of people will be started again |
LS1S3 |
5.7 |
5 |
4.4 |
21.4 |
63.5 |
4.32 |
1.138 |
1.295 |
− 1.805 |
2.31 |
0.31 |
Community transmission of COVID-19 will increase due to people’s movement and mass gathering |
LS1S4 |
1.9 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
16.4 |
78.6 |
4.69 |
0.729 |
0.531 |
− 3.226 |
12.089 |
0.36 |
The number of infected populations will increase |
LS1S5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
19.5 |
75.5 |
4.69 |
0.638 |
0.407 |
− 2.579 |
8.58 |
0.38 |
Pressure will increase in the existing health care facilities |
LS1S6 |
1.3 |
0 |
1.9 |
18.9 |
78 |
4.72 |
0.626 |
0.391 |
− 3.334 |
14.965 |
0.44 |
Healthcare system will collapse due to limited human and physical resources |
LS1S7 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
5 |
25.2 |
66.7 |
4.53 |
0.81 |
0.655 |
− 2.288 |
6.176 |
0.42 |
The number of deaths will increase |
LS1S8 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
6.9 |
24.5 |
66.7 |
4.55 |
0.735 |
0.54 |
− 1.884 |
4.08 |
0.49 |
Panic will rise in the mass communities |
LS1S9 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
27.7 |
63.5 |
4.51 |
0.77 |
0.593 |
− 1.841 |
3.775 |
0.48 |
Possibility of the full lockdown of the whole system again |
LS1S10 |
5 |
5 |
9.4 |
28.9 |
51.6 |
4.17 |
1.115 |
1.243 |
− 1.451 |
1.418 |
0.45 |
No basic services will be available |
LS1S11 |
3.1 |
9.4 |
27 |
31.4 |
28.9 |
3.74 |
1.076 |
1.158 |
− 0.536 |
− 0.376 |
0.39 |
An irreversible loss to the economy |
LS1S12 |
3.1 |
2.5 |
10.1 |
27.7 |
56.6 |
4.32 |
0.976 |
0.953 |
− 1.674 |
2.673 |
0.44 |
More unemployment and loss of livelihood |
LS1S13 |
1.9 |
|
6.3 |
39.6 |
52.2 |
4.4 |
0.772 |
0.596 |
− 1.839 |
5.314 |
0.50 |
Social conflict and crime will rise |
LS1S14 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
9.4 |
35.8 |
50.9 |
4.32 |
0.867 |
0.751 |
− 1.56 |
2.951 |
0.54 |
More people will die |
LS1S15 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
36.5 |
54.1 |
4.4 |
0.811 |
0.658 |
− 1.71 |
3.69 |
0.61 |
Management strategies for lockdown scenario 1 |
Continue the existing partial lockdown |
LS1M1 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
28.3 |
57.9 |
4.33 |
0.992 |
0.983 |
− 1.698 |
2.436 |
0.33 |
Deep analysis of the situation and continue this existing partial lockdown |
LS1M2 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
35.8 |
49.1 |
4.23 |
0.982 |
0.964 |
− 1.498 |
1.982 |
0.44 |
Deep analysis of the situation and go for full lockdown with relief support to the poor and most vulnerable |
LS1M3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
20.1 |
73 |
4.62 |
0.761 |
0.58 |
− 2.535 |
7.324 |
0.37 |
Lockdown scenario 2: Continue the existing partial lockdown (LS2) |
Limited people’s movement will enable low-level community transmission of COVID-19 |
LS2S1 |
5 |
4.4 |
8.8 |
40.9 |
40.9 |
4.08 |
1.061 |
1.126 |
− 1.42 |
1.703 |
0.34 |
Existing health facilities will not be able to provide adequate services to the number of COVID-19 patients due to limited community transmission |
LS2S2 |
0 |
1.9 |
15.1 |
52.2 |
30.8 |
4.12 |
0.724 |
0.524 |
− 0.489 |
0.004 |
0.32 |
Infection and death rate will increase slowly |
LS2S3 |
5 |
7.5 |
15.1 |
51.6 |
20.8 |
3.75 |
1.029 |
1.06 |
− 1.043 |
0.817 |
0.28 |
Due to partial lockdown, the formal and informal business will be hampered |
LS2S4 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
6.9 |
46.5 |
42.8 |
4.27 |
0.801 |
0.642 |
− 1.427 |
3.065 |
0.43 |
Poor people living in hand to mouth will be severely affected |
LS2S5 |
0.6 |
4.4 |
5 |
19.5 |
70.4 |
4.55 |
0.832 |
0.692 |
− 2.054 |
3.885 |
0.53 |
The formal education system will be hampered |
LS2S6 |
3.1 |
7.5 |
12.6 |
33.3 |
43.4 |
4.06 |
1.071 |
1.148 |
− 1.127 |
0.615 |
0.44 |
There will be less supply of basic products for daily use |
LS2S7 |
0.6 |
5.7 |
7.5 |
42.8 |
43.4 |
4.23 |
0.864 |
0.746 |
− 1.233 |
1.451 |
0.43 |
Price of most of the basic products will be higher than usual |
LS2S8 |
0 |
3.8 |
6.9 |
38.4 |
50.9 |
4.36 |
0.775 |
0.6 |
− 1.234 |
1.322 |
0.38 |
Poor people will suffer food and nutritional deficiency |
LS2S9 |
0.6 |
5 |
3.8 |
25.8 |
64.8 |
4.49 |
0.841 |
0.707 |
− 1.91 |
3.452 |
0.38 |
Gender-based violence will increase |
LS2S10 |
2.5 |
8.8 |
28.9 |
32.7 |
27 |
3.73 |
1.035 |
1.072 |
− 0.476 |
− 0.354 |
0.37 |
There will be a need for emergency food and financial support to the poor communities |
LS2S11 |
0 |
1.3 |
3.1 |
27.7 |
67.9 |
4.62 |
0.613 |
0.376 |
− 1.733 |
3.374 |
0.52 |
Lack of support and improper management will lead to the psychosocial and socio-economic crisis |
LS2S12 |
0 |
1.3 |
5.7 |
40.9 |
52.2 |
4.44 |
0.662 |
0.438 |
− 1.038 |
1.065 |
0.50 |
Management strategies for lockdown scenario 2 |
Limit the partial lockdown situation just considering the most basic services in a tailored way |
LS2M1 |
1.9 |
4.4 |
13.2 |
47.2 |
33.3 |
4.06 |
0.902 |
0.813 |
− 1.109 |
1.468 |
0.29 |
Increase the health facilities involving private sectors |
LS2M2 |
0 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
35.8 |
59.1 |
4.53 |
0.635 |
0.403 |
− 1.311 |
1.951 |
0.39 |
Massive awareness and enforcement of proper lockdown and quarantine initiatives |
LS2M3 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
4.4 |
34 |
60.4 |
4.53 |
0.673 |
0.453 |
− 1.742 |
4.716 |
0.47 |
Provide emergency relief to the poor communities both in urban and rural areas ensuring transparency |
LS2M4 |
0.6 |
0 |
3.8 |
23.3 |
72.3 |
4.67 |
0.613 |
0.376 |
− 2.333 |
7.934 |
0.47 |
Provide compensation support to the informal businesses (micro, small and medium enterprises) |
LS2M5 |
1.3 |
0 |
8.8 |
37.1 |
52.8 |
4.4 |
0.756 |
0.571 |
− 1.535 |
3.683 |
0.51 |
Implement inclusive sustainable quick plan and policies to revive the economy and employment |
LS2M6 |
0 |
0.6 |
6.3 |
35.2 |
57.9 |
4.5 |
0.645 |
0.416 |
− 1.086 |
0.72 |
0.51 |
Lockdown scenario 3: Full lockdown/shutdown with an exit plan (LS3) |
Very limited people’s movement will reduce the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 |
LS3S1 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
30.8 |
57.9 |
4.37 |
0.945 |
0.893 |
− 1.855 |
3.354 |
0.33 |
Existing with increased facilities for COVID-19 in the health system will be able to provide health services to the infected peoples |
LS3S2 |
3.8 |
8.8 |
16.4 |
38.4 |
32.7 |
3.87 |
1.083 |
1.174 |
− 0.895 |
0.19 |
0.26 |
Number of infection and death will be limited |
LS3S3 |
3.1 |
6.3 |
11.9 |
44 |
34.6 |
4.01 |
1.003 |
1.006 |
− 1.156 |
1.12 |
0.30 |
Due to full lockdown, the formal and informal business, economic and education sector will be hampered severely |
LS3S4 |
0 |
1.9 |
5.7 |
37.7 |
54.7 |
4.45 |
0.691 |
0.477 |
− 1.229 |
1.533 |
0.41 |
Loss of livelihood and unemployment rate will increase due to business shutdown |
LS3S5 |
0 |
1.3 |
4.4 |
39 |
55.3 |
4.48 |
0.645 |
0.416 |
− 1.16 |
1.495 |
0.58 |
Poor communities both in urban and rural areas will be affected severely |
LS3S6 |
0 |
0.6 |
4.4 |
30.2 |
64.8 |
4.59 |
0.608 |
0.37 |
− 1.382 |
1.687 |
0.53 |
Supply and access to basic daily products in urban areas will be reduced drastically |
LS3S7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
10.1 |
34.6 |
54.1 |
4.41 |
0.748 |
0.56 |
− 1.291 |
2.058 |
0.45 |
The extreme need for relief and financial support in the urban and rural communities will increase |
LS3S8 |
0 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
36.5 |
58.5 |
4.52 |
0.635 |
0.403 |
− 1.286 |
1.892 |
0.52 |
Poor and lower-middle-class communities will suffer food and nutrition deficiency |
LS3S9 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
33.3 |
59.7 |
4.48 |
0.77 |
0.593 |
− 2.01 |
5.311 |
0.36 |
Gender discrimination and violence will increase |
LS3S10 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
24.5 |
32.7 |
32.7 |
3.86 |
1.042 |
1.087 |
− 0.657 |
− 0.172 |
0.47 |
People will be involved with conflict and crime to access the basic needs |
LS3S11 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
10.7 |
44.7 |
42.1 |
4.26 |
0.773 |
0.598 |
− 1.065 |
1.614 |
0.53 |
The whole socio-economic system will be hampered severely if not managed properly |
LS3S12 |
0 |
0.6 |
4.4 |
30.2 |
64.8 |
4.59 |
0.608 |
0.37 |
− 1.382 |
1.687 |
0.56 |
Management strategies for lockdown scenario 3 |
Continuous situation analysis of disease outbreak and implement the full lockdown with relief and basic support for human survival |
LS3M1 |
0 |
0 |
7.5 |
34.6 |
57.9 |
4.5 |
0.635 |
0.403 |
− 0.912 |
− 0.215 |
0.52 |
Coordinated emergency relief support |
LS3M2 |
0 |
0 |
3.8 |
30.2 |
66 |
4.62 |
0.559 |
0.312 |
− 1.159 |
0.374 |
0.53 |
Synergy with government, law enforcement agencies, and private sector initiatives |
LS3M3 |
0 |
0 |
8.8 |
31.4 |
59.7 |
4.51 |
0.655 |
0.429 |
− 0.994 |
− 0.141 |
0.56 |
Consider microfinance support with no or low interest for micro-, small, and medium enterprise |
LS3M4 |
2.5 |
0.6 |
5.7 |
37.7 |
53.5 |
4.39 |
0.834 |
0.695 |
− 1.968 |
5.21 |
0.54 |
Loan support for business and economic recovery |
LS3M5 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
5.7 |
37.1 |
54.7 |
4.43 |
0.767 |
0.588 |
− 1.757 |
4.436 |
0.51 |
Long-term planning and implementation of policies regarding COVID-19, psychosocial, and socio-economic loss |
LS3M6 |
0 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
35.8 |
57.9 |
4.49 |
0.692 |
0.479 |
− 1.472 |
2.465 |
0.48 |