. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Oct 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2020 Jan 21;59(10):1156–1164. doi: 10.1016/j.jaac.2019.12.005

Table 3.

Individual Predictive Value of Each Factor Included in the Risk Calculator of Youths With Bipolar Disorder (Training: n=182, Testing: n=181)

Predictor Domain	Factors	Across-Fold Average Relative Influence	Test AUC Decrement if Removed from Model
Predictor Domain	Factors	Across-Fold Average Relative Influence	Any Recurrence	Depressive Recurrence	Manic Recurrence

Demographic/Family Factors	Age at assessment	16.23%	−0.025^a	−0.019	−0.010
	Age of mood disorder onset	7.31 %	−0.016^a	−0.021^a	−0.020
	Family History of Mania (1 st vs. 2nd vs. Both)	2.09%	−0.003	−0.007	−0.004

Factors From the Previous Episode	Maximum PSR major depression score	10.36%	−0.007	−0.008	−0.007
	Number of weeks with threshold major depression	5.59%	−0.005	−0.007	−0.005
	Maximum PSR hypo/mania score	3.63%	0.000	−0.003	−0.002
	Number of weeks with threshold hypo/mania	1.56%	0.000	−0.005	−0.006

Recovery Factors	Current recovery length	15.84%	−0.009	−0.030^a	−0.005
Recovery Factors	Prior recovery length	31.19%	−0.016	−0.014	−0.011

Past Episode History Factors	Number of Recurrences (None vs. 1 vs. 2+)	0.33%	0.000	−0.003	−0.003
Past Episode History Factors	Episodes mostly include hypo/manic symptoms?	5.88%	0.000	−0.008	−0.012

Note: AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; PSR = psychiatric status ratings from the Longitudinal Interval Follow-Up Evaluation (LIFE); PSR 1-2 = no or minimal symptoms, PSR 3-4 = subthreshold mood symptoms, PSR ≥ 5 = syndrome symptomatology; Recovery = 2 months with PSRs 1-2; Recurrence = PSRs ≥ 5 for at least 1 week for hypo/mania, and at least 2 weeks for a major depressive episode.

Significantly different from zero after bootstrapping 95% CIs.