Table 4.
Additional Demographic and Clinical Factors Evaluated for the 5-year Risk Calculator for Youths With Bipolar Disorder (Training: n=182, Testing: n=181)
| Additional Predictor Variables | Effect of Adding Individual Predictors | Effects of Adding Full Predictor Domain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC Increment | Relative Influence | AUC Increment | Relative Influence | |
| Demographics | ||||
| Female | 0.000 | 0.05 | ||
| Caucasian | 0.001 | 0.52 | ||
| SES | 0.000 | 0.92 | 0.002 | 2.44 |
| Living with both biological parents | 0.001 | 1.32 | ||
| Comorbid Diagnoses | ||||
| Any Comorbid Diagnosis | 0.000 | 0.04 | ||
| GAD | 0.000 | 0.00 | ||
| ADHD | 0.000 | 0.06 | ||
| DBD | 0.000 | 0.31 | 0.005 | 2.34 |
| Psychosis | 0.001 | 0.25 | ||
| SUD | 0.004 | 1.78 | ||
| History of Physical/Sexual Abuse | 0.000 | 0.18 | 0.000 | 0.18 |
| Suicidality | ||||
| Lifetime Suicide Attempt | 0.000 | 0.06 | ||
| Lifetime Threshold Suicidal Ideation | 0.000 | 0.14 | 0.000 | 0.20 |
| Expanded Family History | ||||
| Depression | 0.000 | 0.64 | ||
| ADHD | 0.001 | 1.11 | ||
| CD | 0.002 | 1.38 | 0.011 | 7.56 |
| Anxiety | 0.000 | 1.02 | ||
| SUD | 0.007 | 4.12 | ||
| Suicidality | 0.003 | 1.44 | ||
| Most Severe Mood Symptoms Lifetime | ||||
| Major Depression | 0.001 | 1.86 | 0.001 | 3.41 |
| Hypo/mania | 0.000 | 1.70 | ||
| Out-of-Episode Subthreshold Mood Symptoms (Presence vs. Absence) | ||||
| Subthreshold Major Depression | 0.000 | 0.19 | 0.001 | 0.58 |
| Subthreshold Hypomania | 0.000 | 0.39 | ||
| Index Episode Polarity | 0.002 | 2.00 | 0.002 | 2.00 |
Note: ADHD = attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; BD = bipolar disorder; DBD = disruptive behavior disorders (incorporating oppositional defiant disorder and/or conduct disorder); GAD = generalized anxiety disorder; PSR = Psychiatric Status Ratings from the Longitudinal Interval Follow-Up Evaluation (LIFE); PSR 1-2 = no or minimal symptoms, PSR 3-4 = subthreshold mood symptoms, PSR ≥ 5 = syndrome symptomatology; Recovery = 2 months with PSRs 1-2; Recurrence = PSRs ≥ 5 for at least 1 week for hypo/mania, and at least 2 weeks for a major depressive episode; SES = socioeconomic status; SUD = substance use disorder (incorporating all alcohol and substance abuse and dependence);