Figure 3.
Actual vs. predicted plots. Visualisation of actual vs. predicted values for all predictive models (lm, Glmnet, LightGBM, RF, XGBoost) in three time points (T6, T18 and T30) reveal discrepancies in calibration of the compared models. Additional classification performance results in terms of TP, FP, TN and FN are provided where it can be seen that lm, Glmnet and RF outperformed both boosting based methods by identifying more TP as well as TN cases. Model-time point combinations are represented in the following way: lm 6, 18 and 30 months (A–C), Glmnet 6, 18 and 30 months (D–F), LightGBM 6, 18 and 30 months (G–I), RF 6, 18 and 30 months (J–L), XGBoost 6, 8 and 30 months (M–O).