Table 3.

The predictive value of baseline brain atrophy measures to EDSS change at 5 years.

	Group 1 vs.	Group 1 vs.	Group 1 vs.
	Group 2	Group 3	Group 2 + 3
Prevalence	53%	52%	59%
Sensitivity	68%	71%	82%
Specificity	71%	63%	50%
Positive predictive
Value	72%	68%	70%
Negative predictive
Value	67%	67%	67%
Odds ratio (OR)
(95% CI)	5.2 (1.25, 21.57)	4.3 (1.14, 16.18)	4.7 (1.42, 15.35)

All the comparisons were made using patients without brain atrophy at the baseline (group 1) as the reference group. Group 2 = isolated thalamic atrophy; group 3 = whole brain parenchyma atrophy. Group 1: EDSS same/better (n) = 12, EDSS worse (n) = 6, one patient excluded because of missing control value. Group 2: EDSS same/better (n) = 5, EDSS worse (n) = 13. Group 3: EDSS same/better (n) = 7, EDSS worse (n) = 15.