Table 6.
Comparison of HOPE and CEPAC model transmission output.
| MSM |
PWID |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOPE | CEPAC | HOPE | CEPAC | |
| Status Quo | ||||
| Total infections | 102,410 | 103,917 | 16,676 | 15,880 |
| PrEP (base case) | 73% efficacy; 40% uptake | 49% efficacy; 10% uptake | ||
| Total infections | 76,562 | 81,756 | 15,849 | 14,704 |
| Infections averted (%) | 25,848 (25.2%) | 22,161 (21.3%) | 827 (5.0%) | 1,176 (7.4%) |
| Lower PrEP efficacy | 44% efficacy | 9.6% efficacy | ||
| Total infections | 85,847 | 89,544 | 16,462 | 15,379 |
| Infections averted (%) | 16,563 (16.2%) | 14,373 (13.8%) | 214 (1.3%) | 501 (3.2%) |
| Higher PrEP efficacy | 92% efficacy | 70% efficacy | ||
| Total infections | 70,539 | 76,622 | 15,516 | 14,338 |
| Infections averted (%) | 31,871 (31.1%) | 27,295 (26.3%) | 1,160 (7.0%) | 1,542 (9.7%) |
| Lower PrEP uptake | 20% uptake | 5% uptake | ||
| Total infections | 89,179 | 92,298 | 16,262 | 15,260 |
| Infections averted (%) | 13,231 (12.9%) | 11,619 (11.2%) | 414 (2.5%) | 620 (3.9%) |
| Higher PrEP uptake | 60% uptake | 15% uptake | ||
| Total infections | 64,461 | 71,452 | 15,442 | 14,143 |
| Infections averted (%) | 37,949 (37.1%) | 32,465 (31.2%) | 1,234 (7.4%) | 1,737 (10.9%) |
CEPAC: Cost-effectiveness of preventing AIDS complications microsimulation model; HOPE: HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics dynamic transmission model; MSM: men who have sex with men; PrEP: pre-exposure prophylaxis; PWID: people who inject drugs.