Table 2.

R-squares of AR, VAR and GAR predictions on test set in different age groups and horizons.

Model	Age group	Horizon (months)
		1	2	4	6	8	10	12
AR	0–3	0.7538	0.3072	0.2518	0.5693	0.2776	0.3276	0.4583
	3–6	0.8505	0.5976	-0.4590	0.3501	-0.409	0.4777	0.4380
	> 6	0.7510	0.4755	0.3779	0.2717	0.4095	0.4127	0.3421
	Total	0.8420	0.4956	0.4690	0.5413	0.4368	0.4721	0.4810
VAR	0–3	0.7561	0.4129	0.4907	0.4509	0.5667	0.5527	0.3712
	3–6	0.8550	0.4527	0.4507	0.3631	0.4707	0.1161	0.3671
	> 6	0.7906	0.4183	0.4589	0.2799	0.3129	0.2858	0.3254
	Total	0.8319	0.6000	0.5071	0.3657	0.5711	0.4768	0.3498
GAR	0–3	0.8051	0.5101	0.6009	0.4088	0.5984	0.4458	0.4488
	3–6	0.8193	0.4729	0.5907	0.4479	0.5526	0.4018	0.5246
	> 6	0.8141	0.5096	0.6210	0.4329	0.5723	0.4313	0.4797
	Total	0.8181	0.5139	0.6050	0.4629	0.5753	0.4316	0.5160

The number in bold indicates the maximum value in a certain horizon and age group. ‘Total’ means the total number of cases of EV-A71 subtype in Beijing.