Table 3. Multivariable Survival Analysis in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study^a.

Metabolomic risk (HR per SD increase in CM stress)	No. (No. of events)	HR (95% CI)	P value	C (95% CI)b	∆C (95% CI)b	NRI (95% CI)b	IDI (95% CI)b
CHDc
Model 1	1947 (282)	1.40 (1.24 to 1.58)	<.001	0.656 (0.621 to 0.691)	0.029 (0.005 to 0.054)	0.142 (0.036 to 0.241)	0.027 (0.011 to 0.048)
Model 2	1947 (282)	1.14 (1.00 to 1.31)	.045	0.738 (0.704 to 0.772)	0.001 (−0.004 to 0.006)	0.121 (0.024 to 0.230)	0.010 (0.002 to 0.027)
Model 3	1947 (282)	1.13 (1.00 to 1.28)	.05	0.715 (0.681 to 0.750)	0.002 (−0.004 to 0.008)	−0.007 (−0.124 to 0.104)	0.003 (−0.001 to 0.011)
All-cause mortality
Model 1	2076 (1068)	1.33 (1.24 to 1.41)	<.001	0.685 (0.670 to 0.701)	0.020 (0.011 to 0.028)	0.140 (0.071 to 0.209)	0.029 (0.015 to 0.043)
Model 2	2076 (1068)	1.15 (1.07 to 1.24)	<.001	0.734 (0.720 to 0.749)	0.003 (0.000 to 0.006)	0.046 (−0.043 to 0.122)	0.005 (0.000 to 0.012)

Abbreviations: CHD, coronary heart disease; CM, cardiometabolic; HR, hazard ratio; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; NRI, net reclassification index.

^aAdjustments: model 1: age, sex, and race/ethnicity adjusted for center; model 2: model 1 plus smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of medications for hypertension, type 2 diabetes status, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and estimated glomerular filtration rate for incident CHD analysis; all-cause mortality analysis was further adjusted for body mass index and prevalent cardiovascular disease; and model 3: for CHD only; adjusted for center, sex, and Pooled Cohort Equation.

^bThe C statistics and NRI and IDI are computed in reference to models without the CM score added vs those with the CM score added.

^cAnalyses for incident CHD excluded individuals with prevalent CHD at baseline (accounting for the difference in number of individuals per regression).