. 2020 Jul 24;5:502–509. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.07.003

Table 1.

The generalized logistic growth model estimates of COVID-19 pandemic.

Parameter	Chinese mainland	Iran	The Philippines	Chinese Taiwan
R²^a	0.997	0.995	0.995	0.99
α[95% CI^b]	0.99 [0.97, 1.02]	1 [0.8, 1.6]	0.99 [0.35, 1.63]	0.98 [0.88, 1.13]
r[95% CI^b]	0.22 [0.21, 0.23]	0.1 [0.09, 0.11]	0.19 [0.18, 0.2]	0.14 [0.13, 0.15]
R₀[95% CI^b]	3.59 [3.39, 3.79]	1.86 [1.83, 1.89]	3 [2.8, 3.2]	2.26 [1.86, 2.66]
April 10^thprojected No. of cases [95% CI^b]	81796.55 [81796.53, 81796.57]	68225 [65971, 70382]	4430 [4172, 4669]	425 [418, 431]
April 10^thobserved No. of cases	81953	68192	4195	382
t_mprojected [95% CI^b]	19.4 [19.14, 19.66]	37.8 [33.9, 41.7]	44.7 [39.9, 49.5]	31.3 [29.86, 32.74]
t_mobserved	Day 23 (February 12^th)	Day 34 (March 30^th)	Day 42 (March 31^st)	Day 23 (March 20^th)
Maximum No. of cases [95% CI^b]	81871 [80520, 83222]	105547 [69451, 141643]	6367 [0, 22374]	483 [441, 525]
Pandemic cessation day number and date [95% CI^b]	102 [72, 127] May 1^st [April 1^st, May 26^th]	213 [147, 252] September 25^th [July 21^st, December 3^rd]	131 [119, 157] June 28^th [June 16^th, July 24^th]	129 [80, 181] July 2^nd [May 14^th, August 23^rd]
July 1^stobserved No. of cases	83534	230211	38511	447

α, the deviation from the symmetric classic logistic curve; r, the intrinsic growth rate during the exponential phase; R₀, the basic reproduction number; t_m, the turning point of the model, the date in the brackets indicates the actual day where the maximum number of cases has occurred.

Pearson’s correlation goodness-of-fit of the model, p value < 2.2e⁻¹⁶.

CI, confidence interval.